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Data from Binance on July 20 indicates a significant shift in trader sentiment towards Bitcoin, with 54.03% of accounts holding short positions. This figure contrasts with the 45.97% of accounts holding long positions, resulting in a long/short ratio of 0.85. This metric suggests a bearish outlook among traders over the last four-hour interval.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $117,927, reflecting a 0.28% decrease over the past day. The 24-hour trading volume has also seen a decline of 25.71%, indicating reduced market activity. This sentiment is further supported by the Bull Score Index from CryptoQuant, which has risen to 80. This index measures sentiment and liquidity conditions, and readings above 75 have historically preceded local price reversals. This level has coincided with temporary price pullbacks during earlier rallies in 2024.
Concurrently, on-chain analytics from CryptoQuant reveal a sharp increase in whale inflows into exchanges. Between July 14 and July 18, the 30-day sum of whale inflows surged from $28 billion to $45 billion, marking a $17 billion increase. This spike in inflows is reminiscent of similar levels observed near market peaks in April 2024 and November 2024. A single 80,000 BTC movement may have contributed to this spike, reflecting broader whale behavior. Historically, when monthly exchange inflows exceeded $75 billion, it has preceded consolidation or correction phases, consistent with profit-taking activity near price highs.
Adding to the downside risk, the UK government is preparing to sell over £5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized in criminal investigations. UK officials have recovered 61,000 BTC from a Chinese Ponzi scheme, now valued at over £5.4 billion at current prices. This holding is valued at more than £5.4 billion ($7B USD), far exceeding its value at the time of confiscation. The Home Office and law enforcement are coordinating a large-scale crypto liquidation, with the Treasury expected to benefit. Aidan Larkin, CEO of Asset Reality, noted that these assets could return “hundreds of millions of pounds annually” to the UK economy. The planned sale may be one of the largest of its kind by any government.

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