Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Traders Hedge 40% Put Options as Fed Policy Uncertainty Rises

Bitcoin traders are intensifying their defensive positioning ahead of the upcoming U.S. inflation print, with increased demand for put options across key price levels. According to recent data, the $95,000 and $100,000 put options accounted for 10% of total weekly options volume and nearly 40% of open interest for the August expiry [1]. This suggests traders are bracing for potential volatility following Tuesday’s release of the July CPI report. Derive’s Sean Dawson noted that puts on these levels make up almost 40% of all open interest for the August tenor, highlighting a strategic hedge against a potential pullback if inflation data exceeds expectations [1].

The market is reacting to the possibility of a hotter-than-anticipated inflation reading, which could delay the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts. A delayed easing cycle would likely trigger profit-taking in risk assets, including Bitcoin. Traders are closing long positions, with open interest and volume both showing signs of de-risking ahead of the CPI release [1]. This cautious approach is also reflected in the broader market, where money markets currently price in more than two rate cuts by December, with an 80% probability of a quarter-point cut in September [2].

Options data further reveals a dual hedging strategy, with traders not only increasing put positions but also covering short calls to defend against upward volatility [1]. QCP Capital noted that the increased demand for short-dated puts indicates that precautionary hedging is already underway [1]. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price has edged down to $118,600 as traders take profits ahead of the data release [2]. The U.S. dollar has also strengthened, and global markets have risen in anticipation of the inflation data [3].

Analysts suggest that the market is not reacting to the inflation number itself but rather how it may alter expectations for Fed policy. For instance, Timothy Misir of BRN noted that a modest uptick in CPI to 2.8% year-on-year would still support a September rate cut [1]. However, a stronger-than-expected reading could delay such moves and trigger further profit-taking across risk assets. Investors remain hopeful that a weaker inflation report will reinforce the return of the so-called “Fed put,” where the Fed’s dovish stance supports risk-on sentiment [5].

The positioning among Bitcoin traders highlights a growing sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and the Fed’s policy trajectory. With both upside and downside risks being hedged, the market is clearly preparing for a key economic report that could influence Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin $115K Bets In Demand as Downside Fears Grip Market Ahead of U.S. CPI Report (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/12/bitcoin-usd115k-bets-in-demand-as-downside-fears-grip-market-ahead-of-u-s-cpi-report)

[2] Bitcoin price today: falls to $118.6k as caution builds ahead of CPI data (https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-price-today-falls-to-1186k-as-caution-builds-ahead-of-cpi-data-4184129)

[3] Global Markets Rise Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data (https://www.wsj.com/finance/global-markets-rise-ahead-of-u-s-inflation-data-ce4c0692?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAiLrqJcmAcyrtr0EXkdVGjOTIo6RzCNbl_lU8D14SMCdmTnvk1DRhNd&gaa_sig=UD-qS0zA3tNGD7bKNa7nQqQxMNc48Z5Y4OwEWJfayCsIbKdo1C7PCAKTrUhzaanNToI2X_fTAPQEre6Px59Z1A%3D%3D&gaa_ts=689b0fbd)

[4] US Stock Futures Waver in Lead-Up to CPI Print (https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/asian-stocks-look-subdued-ahead-of-us-inflation-markets-wrap)

[5] The 'Fed put' is back: If Tuesday's inflation report is bad (https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/fed-put-inflation-stock-market/)