Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin traders hedge $115K–$118K downside risks ahead of key U.S. CPI data

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 1:56 am ET1min read
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- Bitcoin traders are hedging downside risks with $115K–$118K put options ahead of U.S. July CPI data, fearing inflation could delay Fed rate cuts.

- Analysts expect CPI to rise 2.8% YoY (vs. 2.7% in June) and core CPI to hit 0.3% MoM, with hotter-than-expected data threatening risk assets.

- Market positioning shows dual caution: short-call covering against upward risks and increased defensive puts reflect uncertainty over inflation's impact on monetary policy.

Bitcoin traders are increasingly seeking downside protection ahead of the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could reveal the early impact of Donald Trump’s trade policies on consumer prices [1]. With market attention focused on the July consumer price index (CPI), analysts predict a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, up from 2.7% in June, according to Bloomberg data [1]. On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%, slightly down from July’s 0.3%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to increase by 0.3% in July following a 0.2% rise in the previous month [1].

A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could weaken expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially pressuring risk assets, including

Bitcoin
[1]. Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, noted that the market is closely watching Tuesday’s CPI report, with a modest uptick to 2.8% YoY expected. A softer report would likely support a September rate cut, benefiting risk assets. However, a stronger-than-anticipated print could delay such moves and trigger tactical profit-taking across the market [1].

Some traders are already preparing for a potential downside surprise. According to Singapore-based QCP Capital, there is increased demand for short-dated put options in the $115,000–$118,000 range, a sign of precautionary hedging against potential losses in Bitcoin [1]. These defensive positions reflect the market’s cautious stance ahead of the data release. At the same time, short-call covering by topside buyers suggests ongoing wariness about upward price risks [1]. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $118,525 [1].

The positioning highlights the dual nature of market sentiment, with participants hedging against both upside and downside risks. This reflects a broader uncertainty about the inflation outlook and its potential implications for monetary policy and asset prices.

Source: [1] Bitcoin $115K Bets In Demand as Downside Fears Grip Market Ahead of U.S. CPI Report (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/12/bitcoin-usd115k-bets-in-demand-as-downside-fears-grip-market-ahead-of-u-s-cpi-report)