Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Traders Eye $113,500 Support Amid Fed Inaction as 97.5% Rate-Hold Probability Constrains Price Action

Bitcoin’s price remains in a holding pattern as traders fixate on critical support and resistance levels ahead of the Federal Reserve’s key policy decision this week. With the FOMC meeting set to conclude on Wednesday, market participants are bracing for potential shifts in the crypto market, though expectations for rate cuts remain low. Polymarket traders assign a 97.5% probability to the Fed maintaining the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50%, with just a 2.3% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction [1]. This near-certainty of inaction has contributed to Bitcoin’s sideways movement near $118,200, with analysts warning that a breakdown below key support levels could trigger a sharp decline.

The focus for traders is on the $120,000 resistance threshold, which, if breached with strong volume, could propel Bitcoin toward all-time highs. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted that a confirmed move above this level might shift attention to $141,000, an area where historical data suggests intensified profit-taking activity [1]. Conversely, a failure to hold above $113,500—aligned with Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) realized price—could see the price retrace to $105,400 or even the yearly open at $93,000 [1].

Analysts have identified specific price targets based on technical indicators. Killa, a prominent Bitcoin analyst, emphasized $114,000–$116,000 as a critical range, predicting a potential drop to $112,000 to fill a "fair value gap" before recovery [1]. Similarly, SuperBitcoinBro noted that a decline to $112,000 could precede a rebound, with the $119,800–$121,000 zone representing the next liquidity cluster. Nebraskangooner added that the market is likely to remain range-bound until Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks provide clarity [1].

The outcome of Powell’s press conference is seen as pivotal. While the rate decision itself is expected to be static, the Fed’s language could sway investor sentiment. TedPillows, a crypto investor, observed a “panic sell” on Tuesday driven by uncertainty around Powell’s remarks, though he noted a historical pattern of post-Fed buying activity pushing prices higher in August [1]. James DePorre and OptionsTrading101 echoed this view, stressing that Powell’s tone, rather than the rate decision, will carry greater weight in shaping market direction [1].

Looking ahead, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and looming Trump administration tariff deadlines will also influence crypto markets. However, the immediate catalyst remains the Fed’s communication, with traders closely monitoring for any dovish signals that might justify a rally. For now, Bitcoin’s trajectory is contingent on navigating the $113,500–$120,000 range, where the interplay between on-chain metrics and macroeconomic developments will dictate the next phase of its price action.

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[1] Source: CoinMarketCap (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6889ef4954b60d73c6013e25/)