Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Traders Cautious Near $115K Support as Derivatives Signal 38% Probability of Dropping Below $110K by July

Bitcoin traders are adopting a cautious approach as the cryptocurrency consolidates near a critical support level of $115,000, with derivatives markets reflecting balanced risk perceptions despite recent volatility. Futures data indicate a neutral annualized premium of 7% over spot prices, consistent with historical ranges and signaling steadiness in investor sentiment following a $4,700 price correction [1]. Open interest remains elevated at $390 million, but traders have not exhibited extreme bullish or bearish positioning, as evidenced by stable funding rates and lack of panic selling [3].

Options markets initially showed signs of elevated fear, with a 25% delta skew spiking to 10% last week, but this metric quickly reverted to a normalized 1% as market participants priced in symmetric risks for upward and downward movements [1]. This balanced outlook is reinforced by stablecoin activity in China, where Tether (USDT) trades at a modest 0.5% discount against the US dollar. Such a discount typically signals market anxiety, but the current level suggests sustained retail confidence despite Bitcoin’s recent pullback [1].

Macroeconomic factors, including global trade tensions and US recession risks, are driving broader risk-averse behavior. Bitcoin’s inverse correlation to real yields (-0.81 over 30 days) has intensified as Treasury 10-year yields climbed to 4.31% and the DXY Dollar Index surpassed 105.00, redirecting capital away from speculative assets [3]. Institutional activity also highlights shifting dynamics: Galaxy Digital’s transfer of 80,000 BTC has raised concerns about selling pressure, yet derivatives data show no aggressive buying near $116,000. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF redemptions hit $52.7 million in a single session, the weakest since May, as investors rebalance toward alternatives like Ethereum staking [3].

Technical indicators underscore bearish momentum, with Bitcoin falling below its 21-day EMA of $117,200 and 30-day VWAP. Immediate support levels are now at $112,300 and $109,000, while RSI and MACD metrics confirm waning bullish conviction. On-chain data reveal 6,120 BTC moved to exchange wallets in 48 hours, with Binance and Bitfinex receiving significant inflows, suggesting potential liquidation activity [3]. Analysts caution that the confluence of technical breakdowns, ETF outflows, and whale exits could increase the likelihood of Bitcoin trading below $110,000 by late July, with CME options pricing in a 38% probability for this outcome [3].

Despite these pressures, stablecoin demand and neutral derivatives sentiment highlight crypto markets’ resilience. The absence of extreme reactions in funding rates or liquidation volumes indicates investors remain cautiously positioned rather than panicked. However, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and liquidity constraints suggest further downside is likely unless ETF inflows reverse or Treasury yields stabilize.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin Traders Show Caution Near Key Support Amid Neutral Derivatives Sentiment] [https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-traders-show-caution-near-key-support-amid-neutral-derivatives-sentiment/] [2] [Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Open Interest Hits Record $44.5 Billion, Price Drops to $116,000] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-open-interest-hits-record-44-5-billion-price-drops-6-116-000-2507] [3] [Bitcoin Breaks Below $116K as ETFs Fail, Galaxy Dumps $1.18B] [https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitocin-breaks-below-116k-usd]