Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Traders Await August 12 CPI for Fed Policy Clues

Bitcoin traders are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. July consumer price index (CPI) data, which is set for release on August 12, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The data is expected to offer key insights into inflationary pressures and potential shifts in Federal Reserve interest rate policy [1]. Bloomberg’s consensus estimates suggest that prices are likely to rise, influenced by President Trump’s recent tariff policies [1]. This has prompted some traders to hedge their positions by purchasing short-dated put options in the $115,000–$118,000 range for bitcoin [1]. Despite these hedging activities, implied volatility metrics have not shown signs of panic. Volmex’s 24-hour bitcoin implied volatility index remains at 31%, well within recent ranges, indicating an expected price swing of just 1.6% in the next 24 hours [1].

The broader cryptocurrency market remains relatively calm, with volatility metrics for ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP showing expected swings of 3.29%, 2.9%, and 4.5% respectively, none of which are out of the ordinary [1]. However, traders are advised to remain vigilant due to the historically volatile nature of August in equity markets, which can quickly spill over into crypto [1]. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked on August 1 before retreating, a pattern that has historically preceded periods of heightened volatility [1]. Analysts suggest that if the CPI data surprises on the upside, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [1]. Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI could boost risk appetite, particularly benefiting ether, which has recently outperformed bitcoin due to growing corporate adoption [1].

Ethereum’s position is being bolstered by institutional inflows and corporate treasury buying, according to Javier Rodriguez-Alarcón, chief investment officer at XBTO [1]. While BTC remains the market anchor, the broader market is still concentrated at the top, according to Alarcón [1]. In traditional markets, gold could suffer significant losses if the CPI data shows unexpectedly high inflation, as it has failed to break above $3,400 since April, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum [1].

Looking ahead, the coming weeks will be marked by a series of key economic data releases and events. On August 12, Brazil’s IBGE will report July consumer price inflation, while the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July CPI data. Argentina and El Salvador will also release inflation figures, adding to the data-heavy week [1]. Additionally, the U.S. will see the release of producer price index (PPI) data on August 14, and the Peruvian central bank will announce its monetary policy decision [1]. These events could influence both traditional and crypto markets, particularly in the context of expectations for Fed policy adjustments.

Derivative activity in the crypto space also indicates cautious positioning. Open interest in major token futures has declined, suggesting a capital outflow and price declines driven by the unwinding of long positions rather than outright short sales [1]. XMR’s perpetual futures are notably overheated, with annualized funding rates exceeding 200%, prompting potential arbitrage opportunities between spot and futures markets [1]. Funding rates for other major tokens remain stable around 10%, reflecting a moderately bullish bias [1].

On the Ethereum front, the Ethena protocol has surpassed $11.89 billion in total value locked (TVL), becoming the sixth DeFi protocol to cross the $10 billion threshold and the second non-staking model after Aave [1]. The sUSDe stablecoin is offering a 4.72% annual percentage yield, attracting yield-focused investors [1]. Polymarket is also making a governance change by transitioning UMA’s oracle from OOV2 to MOOV2, restricting market resolution proposals to a whitelist of vetted participants to reduce disputes and manipulation [1].

In the ETF space, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded daily net inflows of $178.1 million, with cumulative inflows reaching $54.59 billion and total holdings now around 1.29 million BTC [1]. Similarly, spot ether ETFs saw record inflows, with daily net flows hitting $1.02 billion and cumulative inflows standing at $10.85 billion [1]. BlackRock’s ETHA led the ether inflow with just under $640 million, while Fidelity’s FETH added $276.9 million [1].

The technical outlook for major markets suggests caution. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken out of an ascending channel after failing to penetrate previous highs, indicating potential buyer exhaustion and a possible correction [1]. In the crypto space, Bitcoin’s failure to break above $122,000 has raised concerns of a potential double-top formation, with analysts watching for a clear break below $111,982 that could trigger a slide toward $100,000 [1].

As the market awaits the CPI data, the interplay between macroeconomic sentiment, institutional flows, and derivative positioning will be crucial in determining the next direction for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The potential for both heightened volatility and unexpected bullish surprises keeps traders on edge [1].

Source: [1] Bitcoin Traders Watch CPI for Fed Cues: Crypto Daybook Americas (https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2025/08/12/bitcoin-traders-watch-cpi-for-fed-cues-crypto-daybook-americas)