Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Tipping Point: 75% Drop Warning vs. $250K Bull Case

Bitcoin could face one more significant correction before reclaiming its all-time high of $125,100, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt. In his analysis, Brandt highlighted a potential "shakeout" in the coming weeks, which could either confirm a rapid ascent to record highs or trigger a 75% price decline, echoing historical patterns observed in Bitcoin's four-year halving cycles. "Either a huge shakeout, which would be confirmed by an ATH quickly within the next week or so, or a violation of the parabola, which every time in the past has produced a 75% price decline," he stated Bitcoin May See Another Plunge Before ATHs: Peter Brandt^[1].

Brandt's "banana chart" framework, which maps Bitcoin's cyclical behavior, has gained renewed attention after a recent market downturn. He previously predicted October 5, 2025, as a potential peak, aligning with his interpretation of halving cycles. Despite not shorting the asset at that time, he acknowledged the accuracy of his timing, noting, "The was the date I predicted long ago to be the top in Bitcoin" Peter Brandt Regrets Not Shorting Bitcoin, Confirms Banana Chart^[2]. The recent market correction, which saw Bitcoin drop from $121,000 to $102,000 in a single day, has been linked to this pattern, with over $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods Trump’s new 100% tariffs on China triggered a $19 billion ... - CNN^[3].

The trader also warned of a possible bear trap, where false bearish signals could lure short-term sellers before a reversal. He cited a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart, suggesting a potential drop to $73,000 but emphasized the unpredictability of such formations. "Bitcoin charts tend to evolve unpredictably, eventually morphing into new formations," he noted, advocating for timing opportunities over rigid price predictions Brandt Suggests Bitcoin Slump Could Be a Bear Trap, …^[4].

The recent volatility has sparked mixed reactions from analysts. While Brandt's cautionary stance contrasts with bullish forecasts from figures like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes-whose prediction of a $250,000 target for Bitcoin hinges on Federal Reserve policy shifts-others highlight macroeconomic factors. For instance, Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal pointed to U.S. inflation and labor market trends as indicators of potential capital inflows into crypto Bitcoin May See Another Plunge Before ATHs: Peter Brandt^[1]. Meanwhile, macroeconomist Lyn Alden described the next quarter as "probably pretty favorable" for Bitcoin Bitcoin May See Another Plunge Before ATHs: Peter Brandt^[1].

The market's immediate response to geopolitical tensions underscores the asset's sensitivity to macro events. Bitcoin's 7.51% decline over seven days Bitcoin May See Another Plunge Before ATHs: Peter Brandt^[1] and the $19 billion liquidation event Trump’s new 100% tariffs on China triggered a $19 billion ... - CNN^[3] reflect the fragility of leveraged positions amid sudden policy shifts. However, some industry leaders, including MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor and Anthony Pompliano, argue that the crash represents a "healthy reset" rather than a structural breakdown Peter Brandt Regrets Not Shorting Bitcoin, Confirms Banana Chart^[2].

As the crypto market digests these dynamics, Brandt's analysis remains a focal point for traders navigating the balance between technical caution and macro optimism. The coming weeks will likely test whether the current consolidation phase mirrors the 2021 top or evolves into a new bullish trajectory.