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Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a critical juncture in its price movement, as it tests key levels that could determine whether the recent rally is a genuine breakout or a deceptive false signal. Over the week of August 5–11, 2025,
surged above $122,000 before retreating to levels near $119,000, retesting the top of a bull flag pattern [1]. This consolidation has become a focal point for traders and analysts, who are closely watching whether BTC can maintain a sustained move above $120,000—a level seen as a key threshold for a new bullish phase [2].The technical picture is mixed. On the daily chart, the recent bearish candlestick on Monday—marked by a strong surge followed by a pullback—has left a long wick, signaling potential bearish pressure and the possibility of a double top forming [3]. While the support level at $118,000 remains intact, the RSI indicator has dipped below the uptrend, raising questions about the strength of the current rally [4]. The Stochastic RSI has also reached a near-bottom reading, suggesting that a reversal might be in the works, although the 8-hour and 12-hour charts require more time to reset [5].
The weekly chart, however, is still too early to draw strong conclusions [6]. A confirmation of the bull flag breakout remains on the table, but the price may need to retreat further to validate the pattern. The $119,000 level is now a crucial juncture, as it represents both a key support and a potential breakdown point. If Bitcoin fails to hold above this level, it could re-enter the bull flag or even face a more bearish scenario [7].
On the macroeconomic front, Bitcoin has benefited from strong inflows into ETFs and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Institutional support has also played a role, with the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a new executive order allowing crypto inclusion in 401(k) retirement plans [8]. These developments have added a layer of legitimacy and institutional backing to the asset class. Michael Saylor’s potential additional Bitcoin purchase further stoked bullish sentiment [9].
However, the market has not been without cautionary signals. On-chain data shows that while the Fear & Greed Index is in the “Greed” zone at 70 out of 100, it has not yet reached euphoric levels [10]. This suggests that while sentiment is optimistic, there is still room for further gains—if buyers can maintain control above key levels. The inability to hold above $120,000 multiple times in recent days has raised concerns that sellers may still be in control [11].
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin appears to be attempting to fill a CME gap at $117,000 [12]. A successful move to do so could push prices toward the next resistance level of around $129,707. Conversely, a breakdown below $119,000 could lead to a retest of support at $112,600 [13]. Traders will be watching the RSI closely, as a bounce from the 50.00 level could provide a reprieve, but a continued decline may signal further bearish momentum [14].
In the broader ecosystem, GameStop’s recent silence on Bitcoin has added to the uncertainty. The company, which previously signaled a strong commitment to the asset, has not made any BTC purchases since May and now holds over $500 million in Bitcoin. Its $8.5 billion in cash reserves suggest it has the capacity to make a move, but its current stance remains unclear [15].
Security concerns have also intensified in the crypto space, with reports of violent crimes targeting Bitcoin holders, including kidnappings, torture, and murder, driven by the desire to steal private keys [16]. A data leak of over 80 million crypto user identities has made it easier for criminals to identify potential targets, prompting some investors to take extreme security measures [17].
As Bitcoin tests key levels, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether the market can sustain its bullish momentum or if a correction is on the horizon. The interplay between technical signals, macroeconomic factors, and institutional support will likely shape the immediate direction of the asset [18].
Source:
[1] https://uk.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-btc-testing-breakout-real-rally-or-fakeout-ahead-4214281
[2] https://cryptodaily.co.uk/news-in-crypto/bitzo:bitcoin-price-analysis-btcs-push-to-a-new-all-time-high-stalls-at-122000
[3] https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2025/08/bitcoin-btc-testing-breakout-real-rally-or-fakeout-ahead
[8] https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-rises-3-6-120k-target-looms-strong-institutional-support-2508/
[10] https://coinedition.com/tag/bitcoin-3/
[11] https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME-BLB1%21/ideas/page-4/?contract=BLB05U2025
[12] https://cryptodaily.co.uk/news-in-crypto/bitzo:will-btc-fill-the-117k-cme-gap-long-term-bitcoin-price-outlook
[13] https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME-BAB1%21/ideas/page-4/?contract=BAB05U2025

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