Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin tests $115,000 support after 7% decline; derivatives show balanced risk amid ETF outflows, macro pressures

Bitcoin traders have adopted a cautious stance as the cryptocurrency tests critical support around $115,000, with derivatives markets signaling a balanced risk perception amid recent price volatility. Despite a 7% decline from Bitcoin’s recent peak, futures and options data reveal no signs of panic, indicating a neutral sentiment among investors. The 7% annualized premium of Bitcoin futures over spot prices aligns with historical norms, suggesting stability despite a $390 million loss during the monthly derivatives expiry, which accounted for 14% of open interest. This equilibrium reflects a market in wait-and-see mode, with neither aggressive bullish nor bearish positioning evident [1].

Options markets briefly reflected elevated fear, as the 25% delta skew spiked to 10% last Friday but normalized to 1% shortly thereafter. This rapid reversion suggests major participants, including whales and market makers, are pricing in symmetrical risks for potential upward and downward price movements. The absence of extreme volatility underscores a cautious but resilient market [1].

Stablecoin activity in China provides further insight into investor behavior. Tether (USDT) trades at a 0.5% discount to the US dollar, a level that typically signals market confidence rather than fear. Steady demand for stablecoins highlights ongoing retail interest in crypto, even as Bitcoin’s price corrects. This dynamic contrasts with the broader market turmoil, where a $1.18 billion Bitcoin dump by Galaxy Digital pushed BTC to an intraday low of $114,800, shattering the $116,000 support range and erasing $50 billion in market capitalization within six hours [3].

Macro factors, including escalating global trade tensions and concerns over a potential U.S. recession, have exacerbated investor caution. The U.S. 10-year yield climbed to 4.31%, and the DXY Dollar Index surged past 105.00, amplifying risk-aversion. Bitcoin’s inverse correlation to real yields (-0.81 over 30 days) remains intact, with structural headwinds persisting until monetary policy normalizes [3].

Derivatives data reinforces bearish momentum. Perpetual funding rates turned negative on platforms like Binance and Bybit, signaling short dominance. Open interest fell $2.3 billion in 24 hours, with $984 million cleared in the last six hours alone—the fastest deleveraging since March 2025. Options volatility now assigns a 38% probability of BTC trading below $110,000 by late July. Liquidity gaps on exchanges, such as a $9.4 million void between $115,200 and $114,500, further highlight fragile market depth [3].

Technical indicators paint a bearish picture. Bitcoin’s breach of the 21-day EMA ($117,200) and 30-day VWAP invalidates the short-term bullish channel. Critical support levels at $112,300 and $109,000 now loom as potential targets. On-chain data reveals large-balance wallets transferring BTC to exchange-linked addresses, including a 1,922 BTC outflow from a dormant 2022 wallet and $640 million in Coinbase Prime deposits. These movements suggest institutional players are rotating out of Bitcoin [3].

Bitcoin ETF flows have also turned negative, with IBIT and GBTC posting $52.7 million in net redemptions on July 25. This decline reflects institutional profit-taking and a pivot toward alternatives like Ethereum staking or DeFi treasuries. Meanwhile, exchange wallet inflows hit a seven-week high, with 6,120 BTC transferred to platforms like Binance and Bitfinex. However, the absence of accumulation at lower price tiers signals waning long-term conviction [3].

Analysts remain divided. VanEck’s mid-July ChainCheck report warns of an overheated market due for correction, while the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 70, indicating reduced bullish enthusiasm [2][4]. The neutral derivatives sentiment suggests the market is neither aggressively short nor long, leaving Bitcoin in a precarious wait-and-see mode. A close above $118,000 is needed to regain technical footing, but current conditions favor further declines toward $112,000 and potentially $109,000 [3].

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin's Open Interest Hits Record $44.5 Billion as Price Dips Below $116,000](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-open-interest-hits-record-44-5-billion-price-drops-6-116-000-2507/)

[2] [VanEck Mid-July 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck](https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-mid-july-2025-bitcoin-chaincheck/)

[3] [Bitcoin Crashes to $115K as ETFs Fail, Galaxy Dumps $1.18B](https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitocin-breaks-below-116k-usd)

[4] [Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Drops to 70](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-fear-greed-index-drops-70-volatility-trading-volumes-soften-2507/)