Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Technical Stabilization and Fed Rate Hopes Signal Potential Recovery

Bitcoin's recent rebound from a two-month low has sparked optimism among analysts, who argue that easing selling pressure and improving technical indicators suggest the cryptocurrency's decline may be nearing a turning point. After plummeting to $80,600 on Coinbase on Nov. 21-the lowest level since mid-April-the asset has staged a modest recovery, with some experts anticipating further gains if bearish momentum continues to wane according to analysts.

Technical analysis highlights key signs of stabilization. Bitcoin's price has begun to test critical support levels, including the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $104,191, while the RSI has dipped into oversold territory at 21, signaling potential for a short-term rebound. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish, but analysts note that a narrowing negative histogram and RSI recovery above 30 could indicate a shift in market sentiment.

The broader market environment also appears to be easing. ETF outflows, which had exacerbated Bitcoin's selloff, have shown signs of stabilizing. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.79 billion in outflows in November-the largest monthly outflow on record-but recent inflows into alternative crypto assets like Solana and XRP suggest a potential rotation within the sector. Meanwhile, the risk-off signal has sharply declined, with Swissblock analysts stating this "tells us two things: selling pressure has eased, and the worst of the capitulation is likely behind us, for now".

Federal Reserve dynamics are another critical factor. The probability of a rate cut in December surged to 69.3% as of Nov. 24, reversing a prior dip to 30%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Analysts argue that the central bank's eventual liquidity injections could bolster risk-on assets like Bitcoin, particularly if quantitative easing measures return. "The Fed has to inject liquidity at some point, otherwise they go bankrupt," one market analyst noted, adding that rate cuts typically benefit high-risk assets.

Despite these cautiously optimistic signals, challenges remain. Ethereum and XRP continue to trade well below their key EMAs, with Ethereum's RSI at 26 and XRP's at 23, both indicating prolonged bearish pressure. Additionally, geopolitical tensions underscore broader macroeconomic uncertainties that could weigh on markets.

Market participants are also monitoring the potential fallout from MSCI's proposed exclusion of crypto treasury companies from major indexes in 2026, which could trigger automatic sell-offs and further pressure digital assets according to analysts. Strategy founder Michael Saylor has pushed back against the move, arguing that crypto-backed firms like his should not be classified alongside traditional funds.

For Bitcoin, analysts remain divided on the timing of a sustained recovery. While some, like Benjamin Cowen of Into The Crypto, point to historical patterns-Bitcoin has historically topped in Q4 of post-halving years and bottomed roughly a year later-others warn of a potential second wave of selling according to reports. Swissblock emphasized that a weaker follow-up selloff, if it occurs, could confirm a shift in control back to bulls.