Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Technical Breakdown Raises Fears of 2021-Style Crash

Bitcoin has dropped below $113,000, a significant departure from its recent record high of over $124,500, as technical indicators and whale activity suggest a potential for further downward movement in the coming weeks. The price correction of nearly 8% since the recent peak has led analysts to highlight the emergence of bearish patterns that could signal deeper declines. A breakdown from a rising wedge, identified by analysts such as Captain Faibik, indicates a weakening momentum and increased seller pressure. The wedge pattern, which has been forming since April, is now giving way to a possible test of support levels at $110,000–$112,000. If these levels are breached, the price could face further declines toward $105,000–$108,000 and potentially as low as $88,000[1].

The bearish scenario is reinforced by the formation of a potential double top on the weekly price chart, a pattern that historically has preceded sharp corrections. The double top, similar to the one observed in 2021, marks two peaks at nearly the same level and suggests a weakening in upward momentum. In 2021, the double top was followed by a 77% correction from $69,000 to below $16,000 over several months. If history repeats itself, the price could face a similar decline, potentially reaching as low as $94,750 by September[1]. This scenario is supported by the current technical indicators, including the weekly stochastic oscillator, which has rolled over from the overbought zone, signaling a possible correction[2].

On-chain metrics also suggest increased selling pressure from large holders. According to data from Glassnode, the number of mega whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC has dropped to its lowest level of the year, with a sustained negative trend since mid-July. Additionally, the number of whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has also declined, reflecting profit-taking near Bitcoin’s recent highs. This trend, combined with the bearish technical patterns, raises the risk of a broader market pullback unless strong demand returns to the market[1].

However, one key difference between the 2021 price cycle and the current one is the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, as indicated by CME data. A 25-basis-point cut could help offset some of the downward pressure on Bitcoin. Analysts at Swissblock suggest that a persistently growing global money supply (M2) could also support Bitcoin’s price in the coming months, with some forecasts suggesting a target price of $132,000 or even $170,000. While this scenario could counterbalance short-term technical weaknesses, it remains to be seen whether the broader uptrend can be sustained[1].

The breakdown from the rising wedge and the double-top pattern are not isolated signals. The daily chart also shows that Bitcoin has broken below a bullish trendline that had been in place since April, indicating a shift toward seller dominance. A violation of the key support level at $111,982 would increase the focus on the 200-day simple moving average at around $100,000. A potential reversal back above $118,600 would weaken the bear case, but the current trajectory remains cautious[2].

As Bitcoin faces these technical and market pressures, investors are closely monitoring whether institutional demand and macroeconomic factors, such as Fed policy and global liquidity, can provide a counterbalance to the downward momentum. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the current correction leads to a broader trend or a temporary pause in Bitcoin’s longer-term upward trajectory[2].

Source: [1] Bitcoin Price Rising Wedge Breakdown: How Low Can ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-rising-wedge-breakdown-how-low-can-bitcoin-go) [2] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: In Precarious Position (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/18/btc-in-precarious-position-as-prices-penetrate-bullish-trendline)