Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s Technical Breakdown and Fed Watch Create High-Stakes Crossroad

Bitcoin traders are closely monitoring price movements and technical indicators as the cryptocurrency faces a potential downturn. Recent data show that Bitcoin has broken below a rising wedge pattern, a classic bearish reversal formation that has historically preceded significant declines. Analysts suggest that this breakdown could drive the price of Bitcoin as low as $88,000 in the coming weeks, depending on market conditions and on-chain activity. The breakdown occurred on the daily chart, with Bitcoin forming higher highs and higher lows since April before collapsing under the support trendline. This development has signaled increasing selling pressure and weakening momentum among traders [4].

Technical analysts highlight the significance of Bitcoin’s breakdown in the context of a larger bearish pattern. A 2021-like double top has emerged, with two consecutive peaks forming around similar levels. This pattern has historically led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price, as was the case in 2021 when BTC fell from $69,000 to below $16,000. The current setup could result in a similar correction, potentially taking Bitcoin down to $94,750 by September if the pattern plays out similarly [4]. Analysts also note that the cryptocurrency’s weekly close suggests a weakening trend, with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) serving as a key resistance level. If Bitcoin fails to hold above this line, further declines are expected [4].

On-chain metrics also indicate potential selling pressure in the Bitcoin market. Data from Glassnode show that the number of mega-whale addresses—those holding more than 10,000 BTC—has reached its lowest level of the year. This trend has persisted since mid-July, suggesting that large holders are offloading their positions. Additionally, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have also seen a decline, signaling profit-taking among mid-sized investors. These movements, combined with the bearish technical patterns, increase the likelihood of a broader correction unless strong demand emerges [4].

However, not all signals point to a bearish outlook. The possibility of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September could provide some relief to the Bitcoin market. According to CME data, markets are pricing in a high probability of such a cut, which could stimulate liquidity and support a broader uptrend in BTC. Unlike in 2021, when the Fed began tapering its asset purchases, the current environment is characterized by a growing global money supply (M2), which could lead to higher Bitcoin prices in the months ahead. Some analysts have even projected a price target of $132,000 or even $170,000, depending on macroeconomic developments [4].

Bitcoin traders are now turning their attention to the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address the economic outlook and policy direction. The central bank’s stance on inflation, employment, and interest rates could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially if a dovish policy is signaled. Investors are also keeping a close eye on retail earnings reports, particularly from major retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target, which could provide additional clues about consumer sentiment and economic health [1].

Source: [1] Wall Street muted in investors focus retail earnings, Jackson Hole summit (https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-muted-investors-focus-retail-earnings-jackson-hole-summit-2025-08-18/) [2] Press Releases (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20250815a.htm) [3] Understanding the Fed: Five Things You Should Know (https://www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/inside-the-fed/2025/08/13/understanding-the-fed-five-things-you-should-know-about-monetary-policy) [4] Bitcoin Price Rising Wedge Breakdown: How Low Can Bitcoin Go (https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-rising-wedge-breakdown-how-low-can-bitcoin-go)