Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin TD Sequential Sell-Signal Triggers 50% Drop Risk Amid Consolidation

Bitcoin has triggered a TD Sequential sell-signal on its quarterly chart, a technical indicator historically associated with potential market corrections. This development follows the cryptocurrency’s price surge above $100,000 in June 2025, sparking debate among analysts about its implications for the broader market [1]. Ali Martinez, a prominent crypto technical analyst, emphasized that the sell-signal aligns with past patterns observed in 2015 and 2018, suggesting a possible trend exhaustion and subsequent correction [2]. However, other experts, including CryptoGoos, challenge this bearish view, pointing to the absence of a double-top formation and the resilience of Bitcoin’s market structure [1].

The sell-signal has intensified discussions among traders about Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. While some analysts warn of a potential 50% price drop if key resistance levels fail to hold [7], others note that current market conditions, including a 15% decline in trading volume over the past week, may mitigate historical volatility [2]. Bitcoin has been consolidating within a $115,000–$120,000 range for 10 days, signaling neutral momentum amid a lack of speculative activity [1]. Market participants are closely monitoring Fibonacci support zones at $107,000–$111,000, with some predicting a pullback to the $114,000–$115,000 range as a likely near-term outcome [3].

The uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s direction has ripple effects across the crypto market. Bearish MACD signals and reduced dominance over altcoins have raised concerns about a broader market correction [6]. Analysts caution that sustained low inflows to exchanges could exacerbate a prolonged downturn, though institutional adoption and macroeconomic developments remain critical variables [7]. A failure to break out of the current consolidation phase may trigger an "exhaustion wick" below $116,000 or $112,000, further signaling a reversal in momentum [5].

While historical data underscores the significance of the TD Sequential sell-signal, evolving dynamics—such as regulatory shifts and macroeconomic trends—could alter its predictive power. Traders are advised to monitor on-chain metrics and technical indicators as the market navigates this period of consolidation.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Consolidates in Bullish Pennant as Technical Indicators Signal Neutral Momentum](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-consolidates-bullish-pennant-technical-indicators-signal-neutral-momentum-116k-121k-range-2507/)

[2] [Bitcoin Consolidates Near $120000 Amid 15% Volume Drop](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-consolidates-120-000-15-volume-drop-awaits-breakout-signal-2507/)

[3] [Bitcoin May Drop: BTC Traders Face Price Traps](https://www.forexmart.com/analytical-reviews/article/418259)

[5] [Crypto Hype Cools—Analyst Predicts When the Next Altcoin Surge Will Start](https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:069c43cc6094b:0-crypto-hype-cools-analyst-predicts-when-the-next-altcoin-surge-will-start/)

[6] [XRP’s July Uptrend Threatened as Bitcoin’s $120K Price Action Shifts Momentum](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xrps-july-uptrend-threatened-bitcoins-115010593.html)

[7] [Analyst Sounds Alarm for 50% Crash If Bitcoin Doesn’t Break Out](https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-982337-20250724)