Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Targets $136,000 as Momentum Persists, Glassnode Reports

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has identified $136,000 as the next key price level for Bitcoin, should the current momentum persist. This assessment is based on several on-chain indicators that suggest where Bitcoin stands in its current cycle.

The Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which measures the average acquisition price of investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days, is a critical metric. The Bitcoin price recently broke above this cost basis and has remained above it, indicating that STHs are in a state of net profit. The analytics firm has marked several levels corresponding to specific standard deviations from the STH Cost Basis. With the recent price surge to a new all-time high above $123,000, Bitcoin breached the +1 standard deviation level, historically associated with heated market conditions. However, after a pullback, the coin returned below this mark but remains close to it. Glassnode explains that if this momentum continues, the next key level is $136,000 (2 + standard deviation), a zone that has historically marked elevated profit-taking and local market peaks.

While the STH Cost Basis model suggests that Bitcoin is not yet overheated, other indicators paint a different picture. The STH Supply In Profit, which tracks the percentage of the cohort’s supply sitting on some gain, has surged far above the 88% threshold that separates high-risk euphoric phases. Another metric, measuring the percentage of STH volume leading to profit realization, also jumped significantly above the historical overheated cutoff of 62%. Such spikes often occur multiple times in bull markets but typically precede local tops and warrant caution, notes the analytics firm.

During this spike of profit-taking, the ratio between the profit and loss being realized by the Bitcoin STHs spiked to a 7-day exponential moving average value of 39.8. This value is extreme by historical standards, but spikes like this have generally occurred multiple times over the course of a cycle before a top is finally attained. Glassnode suggests that historically, cycle tops follow with a lag, leaving room for further upside. However, the risk is elevated, and the market becomes increasingly sensitive to external shocks. The current pullback aligns with this pattern.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $118,800, up more than 8% in the last seven days. This price movement underscores the volatility and potential for further gains, but also the need for caution as the market approaches historically significant levels.