Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Survival Hinges on AI Stocks Crashing to Force Fed Action

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CEO of Maelstrom, has signaled that Bitcoin may find a near-term floor between $80,000 and $85,000, but emphasized that a broader recovery hinges on a reversal in Federal Reserve policy. The prediction comes amid a turbulent market environment marked by declining institutional support, bearish technical indicators, and a Fed ending its quantitative tightening campaign.

The cryptocurrency's recent collapse has been attributed to structural weaknesses exposed by institutional outflows, with two major firms triggering a cascade of liquidations in November 2025 according to Forbes analysis. "The 'Four Year Cycle' that predicted a late-2025 peak has been broken," Hayes noted, aligning with the "Left Translated" theory suggesting Bitcoin's top may already have been in. The bearish sentiment is reinforced by technical analysis showing Bitcoin trading below key moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hitting oversold levels, signaling prolonged selling pressure.

A critical factor in Hayes' outlook is the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. On October 30, 2025, the Fed announced it would conclude its balance-sheet reduction by December 1, effectively ending quantitative tightening. However, Hayes argued that meaningful relief for Bitcoin requires aggressive quantitative easing-a scenario he ties to a collapse in AI stocks. In a recent X post, he stated, "For the Fed to print more money, AI tech stocks would have to 'crater'." This view is supported by broader market trends, as the S&P 500 prepares for its worst month since March 2025, with Bitcoin's correlation to risk assets tightening.

The path to a potential rebound remains fraught. Hayes highlighted that inefficient miners are already operating at a loss, with a wave of bankruptcies likely to precede a market bottom. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have seen record outflows, with investors pulling $3.5 billion in November alone. BlackRock's IBIT recorded $122 million in redemptions, underscoring waning institutional confidence.

Looking ahead, Hayes and macro analysts project that Fed intervention-likely in Q1 2026-could drive Bitcoin higher, but stress that liquidity injections are contingent on deteriorating economic conditions. Three key U.S. economic reports before Thanksgiving 2025 could further shape market sentiment, as every major data release now acts as a potential catalyst for price swings. Until then, Bitcoin remains trapped in a "no man's land" between a fractured narrative and a hostile macroeconomic backdrop according to Forbes analysis.