Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Surges on Fed Hopes, But Bearish Signals Warn of Volatility

Bitcoin surged above $91,000 on Nov. 27, 2025, driven by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and significant institutional activity, including SpaceX's $105 million Bitcoin transfer. The price rebound, however, remains constrained by bearish indicators and broader market uncertainty. Prediction markets now price a 80% chance of a Fed rate cut, up sharply from 45% a week earlier, reflecting shifting sentiment toward easing monetary policy. This optimism is tempered by a 67.1% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction in December, according to Fedwatch data, which could weaken the dollar and boost risk assets like crypto.

Technical analysis highlights a fragile recovery. Bitcoin recently broke below the 50-week EMA and a key rising trendline, entering a structural retracement phase. Immediate resistance lies at $90,822 (38.2% Fibonacci level) and $94,003 (50% Fibonacci), with a critical decision point at $101,000 if bulls reclaim control. Conversely, a breakdown could target $80,524 or the psychological $75,000 level. The Dollar Index (DXY) also shows bearish accumulation below 100, adding macroeconomic headwinds.

The broader market context remains bearish. Major equities like NVIDIA and Microsoft fell 1% on Nov. 27, dragging down the S&P 500 and NASDAQ by 2–2.7% for the week. Cryptocurrencies largely followed the downward trend, with Bitcoin closing below $85,000 on Friday, a stark contrast to its $125,000 peak six weeks ago. Market volatility intensified as leveraged long positions in Bitcoin faced liquidations, spilling over into equities as investors sold to meet margin calls.

Institutional activity added another layer of complexity. SpaceX moved 1,163 BTC ($105 million) to unmarked wallets, bringing its total holdings to 6,095 BTC ($556 million). Analysts attribute the transfer to custody management rather than liquidation, aligning with past patterns of consolidating legacy addresses. Meanwhile, a dormant Bitcoin whale sold 200 BTC ($18.35 million), realizing a 223% profit on a 2023 purchase. These moves underscore institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value despite short-term turbulence.

The Fed's potential rate cut could reshape crypto dynamics. Lower rates typically weaken the dollar, boosting alternative assets, but risks remain. Gartner estimates $1.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending by year-end, with U.S. tech giants financing via debt rather than cash flow. This "vendor-financing circle" raises questions about sustainability, as projected AI infrastructure needs may outpace funding by $800 billion by 2030.

Bitcoin's near-term trajectory hinges on macroeconomic clarity. While the December rate cut remains a key catalyst, unexpected inflation or employment data could delay easing. Investors must balance optimism with caution, as technical indicators and institutional activity suggest a volatile path ahead.