Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Surges as Dovish Signals and ETF Inflows Cement Macro Hedge Role

Bitcoin's price trajectory toward $150,000 gained momentum following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's strategic silence on monetary policy during his October 9 Community Bank Conference remarks. Analysts and market participants interpreted the omission of inflation and rate hike discussions as a tacit endorsement of risk assets. Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, described the approach as a "green light" for markets, noting that the U.S. data blackout-caused by a federal government shutdown-reduced macroeconomic volatility and shifted expectations toward dovish policy outcomes.

Bitcoin's price surged to $126,000 in early October, driven by a $2.5 billion inflow of capital from October 6 to 8, including a record $1.2 billion single-day influx. These flows, the second-largest on record, coincided with a weakening U.S. dollar and rising Japanese government bond yields, which prompted tactical de-risking. By October 8, inflows had moderated to $440.7 million as the dollar strengthened. Market pricing of rate cuts also shifted: the CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, while December cut odds stood at 81.5%. Polymarket data reflected 71% odds of a December cut, with an 88% likelihood of the government shutdown persisting until at least October 15.

Mena emphasized that Bitcoin's consolidation near record highs is supported by the Nasdaq and gold, which have both hit fresh milestones. Gold's role as a hedge against currency debasement and the Nasdaq's representation of tech-driven growth reinforce Bitcoin's dual narrative. "Structurally, it's hard to see a top forming with liquidity building underneath," Mena stated, projecting a $150,000 target by year-end-a 22% gain from current levels. He noted that a break above $130,000 could accelerate the price toward the $150,000 threshold.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF landscape further amplified bullish sentiment. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted $970 million in inflows on October 6, contributing to a $1.2 billion net inflow for the week. Historically, such inflows have coincided with short-term price peaks, as seen in March 2024 and July 2025. IBIT now manages nearly $100 billion in assets, generating $244.5 million in annual revenue for BlackRock. Meanwhile, global crypto investment products recorded a record $5.95 billion in inflows, with Bitcoin capturing $3.55 billion. This surge elevated digital asset assets under management (AUM) to $254 billion.

Institutional participation and post-halving dynamics added structural support. The April 2025 halving reduced Bitcoin's block rewards, tightening supply and amplifying demand. ETF inflows, combined with reduced issuance, created conditions reminiscent of prior bull cycles but within a more regulated framework. Citigroup analysts projected a 12-month target of $181,000, citing favorable macroeconomic conditions and sustained institutional accumulation.

However, derivatives positioning introduced short-term risks. Around $20 billion in long positions faced liquidation if momentum stalled, and open interest in perpetual futures reached $40 billion. Analysts warned of potential 10–20% corrections if Bitcoin failed to hold above $125,000, though such a pullback could reset positioning for a renewed advance.

The interplay of Powell's silence, ETF-driven liquidity, and global liquidity trends-such as China's ¥1.1 trillion reverse repo and Japan's fiscal challenges-underscored Bitcoin's role as a hedge against fiat debasement. Mena concluded that "liquidity expectations are apparent, and the rest of the market seems to be catching the bid," signaling a structural shift in Bitcoin's adoption from speculative asset to macroeconomic staple.

Source: [1] CryptoSlate (https://cryptoslate.com/powells-silence-on-rates-to-fuel-bitcoins-path-toward-150000/) [2] CoinDesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/07/u-s-bitcoin-etfs-log-usd1b-inflows-again-a-level-that-s-marked-local-tops-six-times-before) [3] TheCryptoBasic (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/10/06/crypto-investment-products-log-record-5-95-billion-inflows-as-bitcoin-and-ethereum-rally/) [4] TheCoinRepublic (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/10/05/bitcoin-price-can-reach-131k-as-etf-inflows-chart-pattern-align/) [5] CoinPedia (https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-bull-run-builds-momentum-as-china-u-s-and-europe-inject-massive-liquidity/) [6] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/explained/what-japans-fiscal-debt-crisis-means-for-global-crypto-markets)