Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Surges Past $90K on $2B Long Boost, Faces U.S. Pressure

Bitcoin experienced a notable morning rally on December 29, 2025, as long positions surged by $2 billion, signaling renewed optimism among traders. The increase was attributed to rising leverage and dip-buying activity, particularly in the Asian trading session. Bitcoin briefly broke through the $90,000 level, though the gains faced immediate pressure once U.S. markets opened. Analysts observed that the rally was driven by a mix of spot demand and derivatives activity, though the sustainability of the move remains uncertain. The 2025 bull market had already seen Bitcoin reach a peak of over $126,000, and the current test near $90,000 is viewed as a consolidation phase rather than a breakout.

Derivatives markets showed a balanced approach to leverage, with funding rates remaining positive but well below historical extremes. This environment suggests traders are deploying leverage cautiously, reducing the risk of forced liquidations compared to previous cycles according to data. Meanwhile, exchanges like Bitfinex reported a surge in leveraged long positions, with margin balances reaching levels not seen since February 2024. This trend reflects the continued "buy the dip" mentality, even as Bitcoin faced a 30% drawdown from its peak. The derivatives data, however, does not indicate an overheated market or signs of a crowded long position.

Bitcoin's short-term outlook hinges on its ability to hold key psychological and technical levels. Traders are closely watching whether $90,000 can be defended during U.S. hours, as past patterns have shown increased selling pressure in that window. Failure to maintain support could trigger a cascade of liquidations, given the elevated open interest in futures contracts. On the other hand, a successful defense of the $90,000 level could pave the way for a test of the $92,000–$95,000 supply zone. Analysts also highlighted the importance of the $88,000–$84,000 range, which has historically acted as a floor for Bitcoin during previous corrections.

What Analysts Are Watching

Market participants are monitoring several key indicators to gauge the strength of the current Bitcoin rally. Open interest in perpetual futures has climbed toward $60 billion, suggesting fresh leverage is entering the market rather than existing positions unwinding according to analysis. This metric is particularly important because rising open interest alongside a price increase typically indicates strong buying pressure. However, if price stalls and open interest declines, it could signal a lack of conviction and trigger a reversal.

Onchain data also provides a mixed picture. The MVRV ratio, a valuation metric that compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, has risen to 2.2, but it remains below the 2.7 threshold associated with speculative overheating according to reports. This suggests that while the market is accumulating, it is not yet in a speculative bubble. Additionally, stablecoin inflows have continued to support liquidity, with average monthly inflows between $38–$45 billion. This capital surplus helps sustain Bitcoin's price even during periods of volatility.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite the positive technical and onchain signals, several macroeconomic headwinds remain. Elevated U.S. real yields and the Federal Reserve's continued balance sheet contraction have limited the returns of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. These factors increase the opportunity cost of holding BTC, especially as investors weigh alternatives like equities and government bonds. Moreover, the recent performance of Bitcoin ETFs has been mixed, with net outflows recorded for the week ending December 19. While institutional demand remains strong, a slowdown in ETF inflows could make Bitcoin more sensitive to leverage cycles and market sentiment shifts.

Another risk lies in the volatility of leveraged positions. A repeat of the October 2025 crash, where over $19 billion in leverage was liquidated in a single day, could occur if liquidity dries up and margin requirements tighten. The October event highlighted the fragility of the crypto market under stress, particularly when high leverage is concentrated on unified-margin platforms. Although some exchanges have since tightened leverage caps and adjusted collateral requirements, the underlying economics of leverage trading remain unchanged. As long as traders are willing to pay for leverage, crypto markets will remain prone to sudden corrections.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, the current Bitcoin price environment requires a balanced approach. While the structural bid from ETFs and institutional demand remains intact, the market is still rangebound and highly sensitive to leverage dynamics according to analysis. Investors should consider the risks of overexposure to leveraged positions, particularly in the lead-up to major options expiries. The $28 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire on December 26 could lead to sharp price swings as traders reposition their portfolios.

From a long-term perspective, the accumulation of Bitcoin by corporate treasuries and funds continues to reinforce the bullish case. These entities are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a treasury asset rather than a speculative trade, which changes the market's behavior during drawdowns. However, investors should also keep an eye on macroeconomic developments, particularly if the Fed adopts a more hawkish stance. A sharp rise in real yields could erode Bitcoin's appeal as a non-yielding asset, especially in a high-inflation environment.

Finally, the market is still navigating uncertainty around Bitcoin's quantum computing risks. While these threats are not an immediate concern, they could become a confidence issue for large institutional investors in the coming years according to market analysis. For now, the focus remains on technical levels, leverage dynamics, and macroeconomic conditions. As the market continues to consolidate, traders will need to watch for a decisive move beyond $90,000 to determine the next phase of Bitcoin's price trajectory.