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Following the release of U.S. July 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp rally, with
(BTC), (ETH), and rising significantly. The CPI reading came in at 2.7% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while core CPI reached 3.1%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in key sectors. The data shifted market expectations, increasing the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate cut to 93.9%, as tracked by the CME FedWatch [3]. This triggered a risk-on sentiment, with BTC climbing to $137,000 and ETH surpassing $4,400 [3][4]. Altcoins such as (SOL) and (LINK) also saw notable gains, with open interest in the broader altcoin market hitting a record $47 billion [6].The rally was fueled in part by institutional activity. BlackRock’s ETF-driven inflows into Ethereum were a key driver, and institutional purchases such as Metaplanet Inc’s $61.4 million Bitcoin acquisition and ARK Invest’s $19 million Bitcoin purchase further supported the upward momentum [3]. The U.S. Treasury’s liquidity injections, including a $500 billion drawdown from its Treasury General Account (TGA), also contributed to market activity. Bitcoin’s strong historical correlation with global liquidity (83%) reinforced its appeal in the post-CPI environment [3].
However, the market’s rapid ascent brought concerns over leverage. A significant portion of altcoin supply—94.1%—was in profit, raising the risk of liquidation events. Analysts highlighted historical precedents where similar rallies led to corrections, warning against overleveraged positions [6]. Short-dated put options in the $115K–$118K range indicated hedging behavior among traders, as Bitcoin retreated to $119,000 following its initial surge but remained above key support levels [5]. Despite this, the market briefly crossed the $4 trillion valuation threshold, signaling renewed confidence from both retail and institutional participants [3].
Community sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on managing risk amid potential regulatory updates and volatile price action. The July CPI data has redefined the strategic value of cryptocurrencies in institutional portfolios, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are increasingly viewed as hedges against monetary easing [3]. The market’s reaction underscores the growing influence of macroeconomic indicators on crypto price action and highlights the need for careful risk management in a leveraged environment [6].
Source:
[1] The Crypto Market Boosted by a Falling CPI: Solana and ... (https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604910308)
[3] Crypto's Strategic Pivotal Moment: How July CPI Data ... (https://www.ainvest.com/news/crypto-strategic-pivotal-moment-july-cpi-data-reshaped-bitcoin-outlook-2508/)
[4] Ethreum News: Ethereum Breaks $4400 as CPI Meets ... (https://www.binance.com/square/post/08-12-2025-etehreum-news-ethereum-breaks-4-400-as-cpi-meets-forecast-what-it-means-for-crypto-rally-282178****5346)
[5] Bitcoin Retreats to $119K as Traders Eye U.S. Inflation ... (https://m.fastbull.com/news-detail/bitcoin-retreats-to-119k-as-traders-eye-us-4339301_0)
[6] Altcoin Open Interest Hits $47 Billion as Leverage Risks Rise (https://www.ainvest.com/news/xrp-news-today-altcoin-open-interest-hits-47-billion-leverage-risks-rise-2508/)

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