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Bitcoin’s price surged past $118,000 in mid-July 2025, marking a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency’s trajectory amid evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics. The rally was fueled by a combination of institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and global trade developments, particularly the U.S.-EU tariff negotiations. Institutional demand, including strategic acquisitions by firms like Strategy Inc. and Trump Media’s $2 billion reserve, underscored growing confidence in
as an asset class [9]. Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan’s liquidity measures and a broader global easing cycle contributed to a risk-on sentiment, pushing Bitcoin briefly above $123,000 before consolidating around $118,000 [6].The U.S.-EU trade talks played a critical role in shaping market sentiment. Reports indicated that the EU might propose a 15% tariff on goods instead of the initially anticipated 30%, with mutual concessions on aircraft and medical devices expected to ease tensions. However, unresolved disputes threatened to escalate trade wars, creating uncertainty that could reignite volatility. Analysts noted that a resolution before August 1 would be crucial to stabilizing markets [1]. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade agreement with Japan and potential reductions in car tariffs added to the optimism, though no definitive deal had materialized by mid-July.
Bitcoin’s price action reflected both strength and fragility. Despite holding above $118,000 for several days, the asset faced profit-taking and short-term dips, dropping to as low as $117,900 at times. Exchange inflows did not correspond with the price surge, suggesting cautious positioning among investors [1]. Technical indicators showed mixed signals: while Bitcoin maintained control above key support levels, the absence of sustained momentum toward $120,000 raised concerns about a potential correction [2]. Arthur Hayes of BitMEX highlighted the importance of trade policy clarity, noting that a global easing cycle could amplify Bitcoin’s gains but would depend on resolving tariff-related uncertainties [6].
The market’s focus on Bitcoin dominance also revealed a lack of altcoin momentum. With Bitcoin’s dominance above 70%, altcoins remained subdued, indicating that risk-off sentiment persisted until trade tensions abated [8].
, for instance, slipped during periods of consolidation, while hit a record high, showcasing divergent performances within the crypto ecosystem [2]. Analysts warned of a potential 50% crash if Bitcoin failed to sustain its position above $118,000, emphasizing the need for sustained institutional buying and regulatory progress [6].Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains intertwined with global trade developments and central bank policies. A resolution in the U.S.-EU negotiations could alleviate economic tensions and stabilize risk appetite, while unresolved disputes threaten renewed volatility. Institutional adoption and regulatory advancements, such as U.S. legislation for stablecoins, provide foundational support, but short-term dynamics will hinge on geopolitical clarity and market confidence [1]. For now, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase between $115,000 and $120,000, a critical psychological threshold that will likely define its near-term direction [2].
Sources:
[1] [Global Trade Developments Fuel Bitcoin Price Surge](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68810cd8047fe11985fb97ae/)
[2] [Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Holds Above $115K Amid...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-holds-115k-institutional-retail-liquidity-standoff-eyes-120k-breakout-2507/)
[6] [Arthur Hayes: BOJ Shift Could Boost Bitcoin's Price](https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/bitcoin/arthur-hayes-warns-bojs-policy-shift-could-spark-bitcoin-surge-186564)
[8] [No Altcoin Season If Bitcoin Dominance Reclaims This Level](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-980807-20250723)
[9] [Bitcoin returns above $119000 on institutional demand](https://www.economies.com/crypto/news/bitcoin-returns-above-$119,000-on-institutional-demand-46927)

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