Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Surges Past $100 000 as Harvard Professor Admits 2018 Prediction Wrong

In 2018, Harvard economics professor Kenneth S. Rogoff, then a former IMF chief economist, made a widely publicized prediction that Bitcoin would fall to $100 rather than reach $100,000 within a decade. This forecast, rooted in traditional economic reasoning, reflected skepticism about the long-term viability of cryptocurrencies and was consistent with broader bearish sentiment following the 2017 crypto market peak [1]. At the time, Bitcoin was valued well below $10,000, and Rogoff’s stance was seen as a cautionary signal against over-optimism in the crypto space.

However, Bitcoin’s trajectory has defied these expectations. As of this year, the cryptocurrency has surged past $100,000, marking a nearly tenfold increase from the levels observed in 2018 [1]. In a rare public admission, Rogoff acknowledged his earlier forecast was incorrect, stating, “I was wrong.” His revised perspective reflects an understanding that the market has evolved in ways not accounted for by traditional economic models [1].

Rogoff attributed part of his miscalculation to overly optimistic assumptions about U.S. regulatory action on cryptocurrencies. He expressed concern that the current regulatory environment has not been sufficiently stringent in addressing issues such as tax evasion and illicit use, which has contributed to Bitcoin’s unexpected growth [1]. Additionally, he noted that he had underestimated Bitcoin’s role as a medium of exchange in the global underground economy, where it now competes with fiat currencies [1].

The professor also highlighted a perceived conflict of interest in regulatory circles, where some officials hold substantial cryptocurrency holdings without facing meaningful consequences. This, he argued, may contribute to a lack of regulatory rigor [1]. While Rogoff did not provide a new price target for Bitcoin, his remarks emphasize the need for ongoing reassessment of assumptions in light of new market data and evolving dynamics.

This case underscores the inherent challenges in forecasting cryptocurrency prices. Unlike more traditional asset classes, digital assets are influenced by rapidly changing technological developments, regulatory shifts, and speculative investor behavior. Rogoff’s admission reinforces the idea that even seasoned economists must remain adaptable in their analysis of such volatile and evolving markets [1].

Source:

[1] Harvard Economics Professor Who Predicted Bitcoin Would Fall to $100 in 2018 Speaks Out Again – “I Was Wrong” (https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/harvard-economics-professor-who-predicted-bitcoin-would-fall-to-100-in-2018-speaks-out-again-i-was-wrong/)