Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Stumbles Below $116,000 as Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise to 75%

Bitcoin Fails to Surpass $116,000 Despite Strong Labor Market Data as Rate Cut Odds Rise Above 75%

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to break above the $116,000 level in early Wall Street trading despite positive economic signals from the U.S. labor market, as traders shifted focus to the growing odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Nonfarm payrolls for July came in at 73,000—far below the 100,000 forecast—raising concerns about weakening employment trends and fueling speculation that the Fed may ease monetary policy sooner than expected [1].

The weaker-than-anticipated jobs report came days after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a hawkish stance, yet market sentiment quickly pivoted. Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed increased expectations for a rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September, with the probability surpassing 75% [1].

Bitcoin’s price, which briefly dipped to as low as $114,116 amid new U.S. trade tariff concerns, showed signs of a rebound, but order-book data revealed mixed signals among traders. While some positioned for a short squeeze near $120,000, others engaged in dip-buying activity on major exchanges like Bitfinex, where buying pressure emerged below $115,000 [1].

Market analysts and investors scrutinized the liquidity landscape, with crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows pointing out the accumulation of large short positions near $120,000. “Just a matter of time before Bitcoin grabs it,” he remarked, referencing data from CoinGlass [1]. Meanwhile, analytics account TheKingfisher highlighted unusual buying patterns on Bitfinex, noting increased volume at lower price levels [1].

The Kobeissi Letter, a prominent trading resource, raised concerns about the integrity of the latest labor data. It highlighted significant downward revisions in previous months, noting that “258,000 jobs have seemingly disappeared from the data in 2 months,” and warned that either the U.S. labor market is entering a recession or there are serious issues with the data itself [1].

U.S. President Donald Trump also weighed in, further pressuring the Fed to consider rate cuts, adding to the political and market pressures already influencing the economic outlook [1].

Price action on the BTC/USDT pair has drawn comparisons to early-year patterns, with traders on X analyzing the potential for a “vertical” move in August [1]. However, for now, Bitcoin remains below critical resistance levels, with liquidity heatmaps and order-book depth showing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Market participants continue to monitor key levels for a potential breakout, but as of Friday, Bitcoin has failed to confirm a decisive move beyond $116,000. The coming days may offer further clarity, especially with the Fed’s next policy decision looming.

[1] Source: [1] Bitcoin rejects at $116K despite US jobs win as Fed rate cut bets pass 75% (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-rejects-116k-us-jobs-win-fed-rate-cut-bets-pass-75?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound)