Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Stuck Near $92,640 as Fed Caution Weighs on Crypto Rally

Bitcoin traded in a tight range around $92,640 on December 11, 2025, as investors waited for clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate decision and its implications for 2026. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, the third reduction of the year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%–3.75%. Futures markets priced in an 87% probability of the cut, reflecting widespread anticipation but also uncertainty about the Fed's longer-term stance.

The broader crypto market mirrored the cautious mood, with the total market capitalization falling $80 billion to $3.1 trillion. Bitcoin's dominance rose to 54.6%, as risk-off flows shifted defensive capital into Bitcoin relative to smaller altcoins. The asset's price action remained volatile, dropping from $94,000 to $88,000 within hours recently, triggering $500 million in forced liquidations, the majority of which were long positions.

Market participants are closely watching how the Fed navigates inflation and employment risks in the coming months. A dovish tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could reignite investor appetite for risk assets like crypto, especially if it signals sustained easing through 2026. However, the Fed's recent statements and economic data suggest a more cautious path than what many had hoped.

Why 2026 Is Seen as a Pivotal Year for Crypto

Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng views 2026 as a turning point in cryptocurrency's journey toward mainstream adoption. He argues that governments will finalize regulatory frameworks and launch central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), integrating digital assets into traditional finance with greater transparency. This shift, he explains, will move market valuations toward fundamentals such as real-world utility and compliance, especially for altcoins that have historically been more volatile.

Teng also highlighted the growing importance of regulated investment vehicles beyond Bitcoin ETFs, with stablecoins now valued at over $300 billion. The U.S. GENIUS Act and similar legislation are helping stabilize this segment. Stablecoins, according to Teng, are demonstrating value not only for transactions but also for enabling financial inclusion by reducing the cost and time of cross-border payments.

A key driver of this evolution will be the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with blockchain technology. Binance has already deployed AI to enhance security and user experience, and Teng expects this trend to accelerate in 2026. AI is expected to play an expanding role in personalization, compliance, and fraud prevention, reinforcing crypto's credibility and scalability.

How Markets Reacted to the Fed's Rate Decision

Bitcoin's price action remained fragile following the Fed's December rate cut. While a 25-basis-point reduction was widely expected, the Fed's neutral tone—suggesting it would wait for more data before considering further easing—left investors underwhelmed. The price briefly approached $95,000 but failed to break through, retreating to the $92,000 zone amid weak on-chain fundamentals.

On-chain metrics painted a concerning picture. Unrealized losses expanded, and realized losses hit their highest levels since the FTX collapse. Long-term holders were taking profits, contributing to downward pressure, while new buyers capitulated under stress. The market appeared to lack the strength to convert temporary relief into a sustained move higher according to on-chain data.

Institutional demand also showed signs of thinning. US Bitcoin ETFs saw continued redemptions, with net flows remaining negative for the third consecutive week. Spot volume declined near the lower end of its 30-day range, and futures markets reflected limited appetite for leverage. Funding rates in perpetual contracts stayed near neutral, signaling a retreat in speculative long positions according to trading data.

What Analysts Are Watching for the Rest of 2025 and 2026

With the Fed poised to manage a delicate balance between inflation control and economic growth, market observers are closely following its January meeting for clues about the 2026 path. If the Fed signals a more aggressive easing cycle, it could unlock a new wave of liquidity into risk assets, particularly crypto. But any signs of hesitation or hawkish bias could prolong Bitcoin's consolidation phase according to analysts.

Analysts are also watching for regulatory clarity in the U.S. and other key markets. The passage of stablecoin legislation and potential tax reforms could further normalize digital assets in everyday finance. Meanwhile, Binance's Teng and others believe that AI-integrated blockchain systems will become foundational across economic sectors, offering scalable solutions for everything from finance to logistics.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a defined trading range, with institutional demand absorbing distribution from weaker holders. The True Market Mean at $81,300 continues to act as a psychological floor, while the $95,000 level remains a critical pivot. If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold this level without further capitulation from short-term holders, it could set the stage for a more bullish 2026 according to market analysis.