Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Stuck in $80K-$90K Range as Options Expiry Looms

Bitcoin's price remains in a tight trading range near $88,000, as market participants closely watch for signs of either a sustained recovery or a deeper pullback. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 by year-end stands at 15%, while the likelihood of it reaching $100,000 again is pegged at just 8%. These figures reflect a market in a holding pattern, with no clear direction.

Technical analysts highlight growing risks for the downside, as Bitcoin faces key support levels that could determine the near-term trajectory. A recent report indicates that if the $84,000 threshold is breached, the next potential target could be $80,000. This scenario has gained attention as Bitcoin's price remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and institutional positioning.

The mixed signals in the market stem from conflicting technical indicators and evolving sentiment. While some traders see a potential bullish reversal forming, others warn that short-term selling pressure remains strong, particularly on lower timeframes. Repeated rejections at key resistance levels suggest a lack of conviction among buyers.

Why the Standoff Happened

Bitcoin's current position reflects a broader struggle between bullish and bearish forces in the market. A falling wedge pattern formed since May 2025 has recently seen an attempted breakout to the upside, but confirmation remains pending. If this breakout fails to hold, the price could see renewed downward pressure.

On the other hand, short-term charts continue to show resistance from descending trendlines, with price action frequently failing to reclaim key levels. This behavior suggests that sellers remain active despite consolidation. Volume data also points to distribution rather than accumulation on lower timeframes.

What Analysts Are Watching

The focus for analysts is on several critical levels, including the $92,000 resistance and the $84,000 support zone. These levels are seen as pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin can transition into a sustained recovery or face another corrective phase.

Citi analysts recently revised their 12-month forecast for Bitcoin, projecting a target of $143,000, with a bear case of $78,500 if macroeconomic conditions worsen. The bank points to ETF demand and regulatory developments as key factors in shaping Bitcoin's outlook. However, other analysts warn that current positioning may amplify volatility if price breaks out of the range.

Long positioning in Bitcoin has also reached a 22-week high, despite the price remaining near the lower end of its trading range. This divergence could increase the sensitivity of the price to any downward move, especially if support levels are breached. This situation has been noted by analysts.

Risks to the Outlook

With a $23 billion Bitcoin options expiry scheduled for December 26, traders are bracing for a potential spike in volatility. This event, combined with the current market standoff, could lead to sharp price movements either up or down. Deribit, the largest Bitcoin options venue has a significant portion of its open interest tied to this expiry.

In addition, ETF demand, once seen as a reliable tailwind for Bitcoin, has shown signs of slowing. Q4 saw net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust recording its first month of outflows in November. This shift has led some analysts to question whether the "BTC treasury" wave is losing steam, which could impact long-term demand.

The market is also watching closely for a decision from MSCI on whether to exclude companies with more than 50% of their assets in digital assets. A move in this direction could affect capital-raising for Bitcoin treasury firms, further complicating the investment landscape for Bitcoin.

What This Means for Investors

Investors are increasingly cautious as Bitcoin's price remains in a delicate balance between support and resistance. While some institutions still project substantial upside for 2026, the near-term risks are growing. A drop below $80,000 could trigger a broader bear market narrative, especially if macroeconomic conditions worsen or ETF demand falters.

For now, the market remains in a holding pattern, with the coming days expected to bring clarity. The December 26 options expiry and any developments around ETF flows or macroeconomic sentiment could act as catalysts for the next move. Until then, Bitcoin's price is likely to stay in the $80,000–$90,000 range, with traders bracing for the next sign of direction.