Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Stuck Near $118,200 as FOMC Nears with 97.5% Rate-Hold Odds and Key Levels Watched

Bitcoin's price remains confined within a trading range near $118,200 ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, with critical resistance and support levels under close scrutiny. Analysts emphasize that $120,000 acts as a pivotal barrier, while support at $112,000 and $105,400 could determine the asset’s trajectory post-FOMC [1]. The market has priced in a 97.5% probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate range of 4.25%-4.50%, limiting immediate volatility driven by monetary policy shifts [1]. Traders are awaiting clarity from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks, which analysts suggest could influence Bitcoin’s momentum more significantly than the rate decision itself [1].

Key technical indicators highlight the significance of $120,000, a level aligned with two standard deviations above the short-term holder (STH) realized price. A breakout here, accompanied by high volume, could propel Bitcoin toward new all-time highs near $141,000, according to Glassnode data [1]. Conversely, failure to hold above $112,000 may trigger a correction to $105,400, with further downside risk if the $93,000 yearly open level is breached [1]. Analysts like Killa and SuperBitcoinBro note that liquidity clusters between $119,800 and $121,000 could hinder upward progress, while a dip to $112,000 might create a buying opportunity before a potential rebound [1].

Market positioning reflects cautious optimism. Traders are monitoring Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and tariff deadlines, which could impact risk appetite. Analyst TedPillows observes that fear-driven sell-offs often precede rebounds, suggesting a re-entry into the market post-FOMC. James DePorre adds that a dovish Fed tone could spark bullish momentum, underscoring the importance of language in Powell’s communication [1].

Bitcoin’s four-hour and daily charts indicate a consolidation phase, with volume and price action around key levels expected to dictate next moves. Historical patterns suggest August could bring parabolic growth if the FOMC decision and subsequent economic data align with bullish expectations [1]. However, traders are advised to watch for potential corrections, as a breakdown below $112,000 might signal a deeper pullback before a recovery.

Technical analysis reinforces the criticality of $120,000 and $112,000. A sustained move above $120,000 could attract institutional buyers, while a failure to hold above $112,000 may see short-term holders liquidate positions. The $105,400 STH cost basis level acts as a secondary defense, with further support near $93,000 representing a significant psychological threshold [1].

Market participants are advised to prioritize liquidity clusters and cost basis bands to navigate volatility. Analyst Nebraskagooner notes that Bitcoin’s rangebound behavior ahead of the FOMC reflects macroeconomic uncertainty, with key decisions likely to shape momentum in the coming weeks [1]. Traders are encouraged to remain agile, as August could witness sharp directional shifts based on Fed guidance and broader economic signals.

The market’s anticipation of Powell’s speech underscores the interplay between macroeconomic policy and crypto sentiment. A dovish outcome could spur risk-on behavior, while a hawkish stance might trigger profit-taking. The coming days will test the resilience of Bitcoin’s key levels, with the FOMC decision serving as a catalyst for either a breakout or a bearish correction [1].

Sources:

[1] Bitcoin Price May Stay Rangebound Ahead of FOMC as Key Resistance and Support Levels Are Monitored (https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-price-may-stay-rangebound-ahead-of-fomc-as-key-resistance-and-support-levels-are-monitored/)