Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Struggles in Rangebound Trading Amid Fed Policy Uncertainty and Seasonal Weakness

Bitcoin typically experiences a seasonal slowdown in performance during August and September, as key policy-driven catalysts wane and investor activity declines [1]. Historical data shows that these months have consistently delivered weaker returns compared to the rest of the year, with Bitcoin’s average monthly return in August falling below 1% in the past five years, compared to over 5% in other months [1]. The observed pattern aligns with broader macroeconomic cycles and investor behavior, as traders tend to adopt a more cautious stance during the late-summer period.

The current consolidation phase has been amplified by the Federal Reserve’s delayed policy decisions. The central bank’s July 2025 decision to keep interest rates within the 4.25–4.5% range has created uncertainty, with markets now pricing in a 63% chance of a rate cut by September [2]. This has contributed to Bitcoin’s ongoing struggle within a rangebound environment, with prices fluctuating around $105,560 as traders await further clarity on monetary policy [2].

Bitcoin’s behavior also reflects its growing alignment with traditional risk assets. In May and June 2025, the cryptocurrency showed a 0.90 correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, suggesting it is increasingly being treated as a speculative asset rather than a hedge against fiat devaluation [2]. This shift influences both institutional and retail investor strategies, with the former adopting more hedged positions while retail sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, remains cautiously optimistic [2].

Market dynamics in late-cycle environments are marked by volatility and shifting liquidity, as seen in Bitcoin’s price action. Following a 31% rally in the second quarter of 2025, the third quarter has seen a consolidation phase driven by large-scale sellers and whale activity [2]. High money market balances, currently at $7.4 trillion, continue to suppress risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, the anticipation of a rate cut could lead to a re-entry of capital into risk-on assets, potentially boosting both equities and crypto markets [2].

Investors are advised to implement disciplined strategies such as dollar-cost averaging and hedging with low-correlation assets like gold or treasury bonds [2]. Stop-loss orders are also recommended, although historical approaches relying on support levels have shown limited effectiveness in recent years [2].

With the Fed’s upcoming September meeting looming, Bitcoin remains a key barometer of risk sentiment. While a rate cut could provide a short-term boost, a sustained rally remains uncertain. Investors are encouraged to balance optimism with caution and closely monitor macroeconomic indicators, including inflation and labor market reports, to better navigate the evolving market landscape [2].

Source:

[1] Coinotag, [https://en.coinotag.com/breakingnews/bitcoin-analysis-august-and-september-typically-mark-weakest-btc-performance-amid-market-consolidation/](https://en.coinotag.com/breakingnews/bitcoin-analysis-august-and-september-typically-mark-weakest-btc-performance-amid-market-consolidation/)

[2] AInvest, [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-rangebound-struggle-fed-policy-uncertainty-navigating-late-cycle-dynamics-risk-asset-correlations-2507/](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-rangebound-struggle-fed-policy-uncertainty-navigating-late-cycle-dynamics-risk-asset-correlations-2507/)

[3] Facebook, [https://m.facebook.com/manuel.guevarra.369210/photos/bitcoins-path-to-140k-may-pause-with-10x-research-expecting-a-pullback-first10x-/732599792986565/](https://m.facebook.com/manuel.guevarra.369210/photos/bitcoins-path-to-140k-may-pause-with-10x-research-expecting-a-pullback-first10x-/732599792986565/)