Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Struggles to Break $118K Resistance as STHs and Macro Risks Dampen Momentum

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase as it tests key resistance between $117,000 and $118,700, with bullish structural patterns intact despite weakening momentum. The cryptocurrency’s inability to break above this range has sparked market anxiety, though short-term holders (STHs) continue to act as both a stabilizing force and a barrier to upward movement. Glassnode on-chain data highlights that STHs’ aggregated purchase prices form critical price floors during bullish phases, while a notable volume gap between $110,000 and $115,000 suggests the $110,000 level is a pivotal support zone [1].

The current resistance cluster coincides with liquidation levels and supply imbalances, complicating further gains. Traders are closely watching the $118,500–$120,500 zone, where a sustained breakout above $119,500 would shift the narrative from consolidation to potential momentum. However, Bitcoin’s recent rebound to $117,768 lacks the volume and technical validation typically associated with a robust rally, raising concerns about liquidity constraints [2].

Macro factors continue to weigh on the market. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 98.94, while the 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.35%, signaling limited appetite for rate cuts and suppressing risk-on sentiment [2]. The Federal Reserve’s July 31 policy decision looms as a key event, with expectations of a hawkish stance potentially dampening investor optimism. Meanwhile, looming trade tensions, including the Trump administration’s August 1 tariff ultimatum, add to market uncertainty [2].

Technical indicators reflect a mixed outlook. Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI hovers at 49.8 in neutral territory, while the MACD histogram remains negative. A bearish crossover of the 50-day and 100-day EMAs—a pattern last observed in late 2023—further clouds the near-term trajectory [2]. On-chain activity underscores caution: whale wallets offloaded over 13,800 BTC near $118,000, and ETF flows turned negative, with BlackRock’s IBIT recording $22.1 million in outflows [2]. Derivatives markets also signaled prudence, as open interest fell 4.1% and Binance’s funding rate dropped to -0.0092%, the lowest since March [2].

Analyst forecasts diverge. Some argue Bitcoin could stage a “breakout of the decade” if it overcomes $120,000 resistance [3], while others caution that weak stablecoin liquidity may stall the rally in the $120K–$122K range [4]. The Fear & Greed Index remains at 39, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment, and retail engagement has declined, with daily active users falling below 850,000—the lowest since April [2].

The immediate focus is on whether Bitcoin can reclaim $119,500 with rising volume to reignite bullish momentum. Failure to defend the $115K zone could trigger a deeper correction toward $111,000–$112,400. With macroeconomic paralysis and whale distribution dynamics complicating the outlook, traders are advised to remain defensive, awaiting clarity on price action and broader market conditions [2].

Source: [1] Bitcoin Faces Strong $120K Resistance Amid Bullish Momentum, [2] Bitcoin Price Hits $117,768 as ETFs Stall and Fed Looms, [3] Is Bitcoin Ready To Explode? Analysts Highlight Major..., [4] Bitcoin $122K Target Faces Hurdles From Weak Liquidity

https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/16494

https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-rebounds-to-117k-usd-but-faces-etf-outflows

https://dataconomy.com/2025/07/29/is-bitcoin-ready-to-explode-analysts-highlight-major-resistance-breakout-potential/

https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-eyes-122k-but-stablecoin-liquidity-crunch-could-cut-the-rally-short-187799