Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Struggles Near $90K as Options Expiry Tests Market Resolve

Bitcoin Nears Red Yearly Close: Galaxy Digital Explains The Setup

Bitcoin is on track to close 2025 nearly where it started the year, trading around $87,480 as of December 29. The cryptocurrency, which hit an all-time high of $126,800 in October, has since faced headwinds from macroeconomic disappointments, leverage liquidations, and whale sales. The coming days will test whether the price can stabilize above the critical $100,000–$105,000 range, a key threshold for regaining bullish momentum.

The year-end volatility has been amplified by a record $23.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry set for December 26, which has created sharp price fluctuations. Analysts suggest the expiry could drive Bitcoin toward a short-term low of $82,000 or a rebound to $95,000, depending on market responses to open interest and liquidity conditions. With the holiday season thinning trading volumes, the market is more susceptible to sharp price swings.

Despite the uncertainty, institutional adoption of crypto ETFs is expected to continue its upward trajectory. Galaxy Digital forecasts that net inflows into U.S. spot crypto ETFs will exceed $50 billion in 2026, up from $23 billion in 2025. The firm highlights growing institutional confidence, including the removal of restrictions by wirehouses and the launch of crypto funds by major players like Vanguard.

Why the Standoff Happens

The recent price standoff between $85,000 and $90,000 has been largely attributed to heavy options exposure and dealer hedging. Traders who hold options at these levels are dynamically balancing risk, limiting price movement in either direction. The mechanics of gamma and delta hedging have created a self-reinforcing range, where dips are bought near $85,000 and rallies are sold near $90,000, locking Bitcoin in place.

This standoff has been further complicated by thin holiday liquidity. Analysts from QCP Capital have noted that as institutional and retail traders close positions for the holidays, open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined, setting the stage for larger-than-normal price swings. The reduced volume has made the market more susceptible to large orders and position unwinds.

What Analysts Are Watching

Market observers are closely tracking the December 26 options expiry for signs of a breakout. Options traders are pricing nearly equal odds of Bitcoin hitting $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, highlighting deep uncertainty. Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research, said that while predicting 2026 is "too chaotic," a new all-time high remains possible.

One key metric to watch is the max pain point, which stands at $95,000. This is the level where the most options expire worthless, and market makers may manipulate prices to minimize payouts. A sustained breakout above $90,000 could signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below $85,000 could trigger further selling according to market analysis.

Galaxy Digital also emphasized the broader implications of 2025's underperformance. Bitcoin did not hit the predicted $150,000 or $185,000 levels, and its spot ETFs fell short of $250 billion in assets under management. The firm acknowledged that volatility has declined and that Bitcoin is maturing into a more traditional macro asset, with downside protection now costing more than upside bets.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite the optimistic ETF outlook, 2026 remains a wild card. Galaxy Digital warns that macroeconomic risks—such as shifts in U.S. monetary policy and the impact of AI capital spending—could influence Bitcoin's trajectory. Additionally, the U.S. midterm elections in November 2026 may bring regulatory shifts that affect market sentiment according to market analysis.

The crypto market is also preparing for over 100 new crypto ETFs to launch in 2026, including spot altcoin funds and multi-asset products. This expansion could diversify demand but also introduce new regulatory challenges. The SEC's recent approval of generic listing standards is expected to accelerate these launches.

Businesses handling crypto payments are also bracing for volatility. With Bitcoin's price prone to sharp swings, companies are advised to use stablecoins for payroll and adopt crypto treasury management systems to mitigate risks. Collaborating with established platforms can help streamline operations and ensure compliance.

What This Means for Investors

For retail and institutional investors alike, the coming months will be crucial. A stable breakout above $100,000 could reinvigorate bullish sentiment and pave the way for a 2027 target of $250,000. However, until that threshold is reached, downside risks remain. Galaxy Digital cautioned that 2026 could be a "boring" year for Bitcoin, yet one with long-term bullish implications.

Investors should also monitor the broader market for ETF inflows and IPO activity. More than 15 cryptocurrency companies are expected to pursue U.S. listings or uplistings in 2026, adding to the ecosystem's growth. With over 290 crypto and blockchain companies having secured major private funding since 2018, the sector is poised for further institutional entry.

As Bitcoin inches toward a red 2025 close, the market remains on edge for a resolution. Whether the price finds a path higher or remains in consolidation, the coming months will shape the narrative for 2026 and beyond.