Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Store-of-Value Shift From Gold Fuels $644K Prediction

VanEck's head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, has proposed that Bitcoin could reach an equivalent value of $644,000 if it captures half of gold's market capitalization following the 2028 halving event. This projection is based on gold's recent surge to a record high of over $4,000 per ounce, which Sigel argues reflects a shift in investor preferences toward Bitcoin as a store of value. He emphasized that approximately half of gold's value stems from its role as a safe-haven asset rather than industrial or jewelry demand, a function increasingly attributed to Bitcoin by younger investors in emerging marketsBitcoin Worth Half of Gold by 2028 Halving: Analyst - Cointelegraph^[1].

Gold's year-to-date gains of nearly 50% have intensified its rivalry with Bitcoin, which hit a record high of $126,080 in October 2025. While gold has outperformed Bitcoin in the short term, Sigel's analysis underscores a longer-term narrative: Bitcoin's fixed supply and digital attributes could position it as a superior store of value for a generation disillusioned with traditional financial systems. Surveys cited by Sigel indicate that younger investors in fast-growing economies are increasingly favoring Bitcoin over gold for wealth preservation, a trend he believes will accelerate adoptionVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value—But …^[2].

The prediction hinges on Bitcoin's market cap reaching $13 trillion, assuming gold's current $26 trillion valuation remains stable. This would require a 5.6x increase from Bitcoin's 2025 market cap of $2.48 trillion, a trajectory some analysts consider plausible over 5–10 years. Derek Lim of Caladan noted that Bitcoin's growth has shifted from exponential surges to steady, cyclical gains of $50,000–$60,000, suggesting a more gradual path to parity with goldVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[3]. Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that gold could still rise further before any correction, adding uncertainty to the timelineWill Bitcoin Price Surge to $644,000 After Next BTC Halving?^[4].

Institutional adoption is a critical driver in this scenario. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted billions in inflows, signaling growing mainstream acceptance and reducing the psychological gap between Bitcoin and gold as stores of value. VanEck's broader research projects Bitcoin could settle 10% of global trade and 5% of domestic trade by 2050, with central banks holding 2.5% of their reserves in the cryptocurrency. Applying a velocity of money framework, the firm estimates a long-term price of $2.9 million per Bitcoin by 2050, supported by a total market cap of $61 trillionBitcoin Edges Out Gold For Younger Investors: VanEck^[5].

However, critics like Peter Schiff argue that Bitcoin's current price in gold terms remains below historical highs, suggesting the rally is premature. He noted that Bitcoin would need to surpass $148,000 to match its prior gold-denominated record, a threshold yet to be reachedBitcoin vs. Gold Market Cap Race - Katusa Research^[6]. Joe Consorti of Theya countered that gold's rise has already lifted Bitcoin's "fair value floor" to $1.34 million, reinforcing the potential for multi-year appreciationGold Surges Ahead of Bitcoin, But For How Long?^[7].

The 2028 halving event, which reduces Bitcoin's supply issuance by half, is a key catalyst. Historically, halvings have contributed to price increases by tightening supply, though market conditions and demand ultimately determine outcomes. Analysts like Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital argue that Bitcoin's current cycle differs from past patterns due to institutional participation via ETFs, which could prolong the bull run beyond the traditional 500–550 day peak windowBitcoin Edges Out Gold As Store Of Value For Younger Emerging Market Investors: VanEck’s Sigel^[8].