Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's STHs Stay Silent—Could Selling Fatigue Fuel a Bounce?

Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) have recently realized losses for the first time since January, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics and raising questions about the implications for BTC price. On-chain data shows that STHs sold 16,800 BTC at a loss during a recent price retracement from a record high of $124,500, marking a relatively modest amount compared to previous capitulation events. Analyst Axel Adler notes that the intensity of selling has weakened, indicating improved market absorption and potentially limiting downside risk in the short term. The reduced selling pressure suggests that STHs are holding with greater conviction, which could be a positive sign for price resilience [1].

Despite the pullback, Bitcoin remains above key moving averages, maintaining a structural bullish trend. While the immediate momentum has cooled, the broader market support appears intact. Traders and investors are now observing whether Bitcoin can reclaim its previous highs or consolidate to build new momentum. The 4-hour chart shows BTC testing key support levels, particularly around the $118,000 mark, which has historically provided a floor for price action [1].

On the other hand, the performance of STHs remains a focal point for market analysts. According to CryptoQuant, the average realized profit for STHs has not exceeded 5% over the past 10 months, indicating that this cohort has entered the market at higher prices and has yet to see substantial gains. However, despite rising losses in terms of total supply—surging from 190.3k BTC to 1.27 million BTC—STHs have shown minimal sell-side activity, with the liquidity threshold dropping to an extremely low 0.0007. This behavior suggests that short-term holders are not incentivized to sell, a pattern historically observed during market bottoming phases [2].

The cooling activity among STHs is also reflected in the Reduced RVT (Realized Value Transfer) ratio, which currently stands at 0.058. This metric indicates that short-term holders are relatively quiet and not contributing significant downward pressure. Analysts note that this kind of behavior often precedes price rebounds, as selling fatigue elevates and downside momentum weakens. The absence of notable movement between young and older coins over the past month further supports the view that the market is in a consolidation phase [2].

Market breadth data also reveals a broader weakening trend across both the crypto and traditional markets, despite the long-term bullish structure. While a majority of top cryptocurrencies and Nasdaq stocks remain above their 200-day SMAs, indicating a sustained uptrend, 50% of assets are trading below their 50-day SMAs, signaling potential short-term weakness. This divergence highlights the fragility of the current price action and underscores the importance of key resistance and support levels in determining the next direction [3].

Looking ahead, analysts remain cautious but optimistic. If STHs continue to refrain from selling, Bitcoin could rebound and test previous resistance levels. However, any significant panic selling from this cohort could trigger renewed downward pressure, potentially pushing prices toward $112k. The current equilibrium in the market, characterized by stable STH activity and reduced volatility, suggests that a decisive move—either up or down—may be on the horizon [2].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin STH Capitulation Selling Weakens 16.8K BTC Sent ... (https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-sth-capitulation-selling-weakens-16-8k-btc/)

[2] Bitcoin: Why THIS group's refusal to sell can spark BTC's ... (https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-why-this-groups-refusal-to-sell-can-spark-btcs-next-rally/)

[3] BTC Bull Run Losing Steam? Here's What Crypto and ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/19/is-bitcoin-s-bull-run-losing-steam-here-s-what-crypto-and-nasdaq-market-breadth-indicates)