Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's STHs Accumulate as LTHs Take Profits-$100K Pivotal

Bitcoin's price dipped below $100,000 this week as the Coinbase Premium index hit a seven-month low, signaling weak U.S. demand and ETF-related outflows. However, on-chain data suggests short-term holders (STHs) are accumulating Bitcoin, hinting at potential early-stage accumulation despite broader market jitters, in a Cointelegraph report. The premium, which measures the price gap between Coinbase and global exchanges like Binance, turned negative, reflecting heightened selling pressure from U.S. investors. Historically, such periods have coincided with short-term price weakness, though traders note they often precede market bottoms.

The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) fell 5.57% to $100,689.51 on Nov. 4, marking its lowest 4 p.m. level since June 22, 2025, according to a Morningstar report. Over three consecutive days, the index dropped 8.7%, its worst three-day stretch since October 11. Despite the decline, Bitcoin remains up 7.79% year-to-date, though it trades 20.26% below its 52-week high of $126,272.76.

On-chain metrics reveal a mixed picture. STHs, who typically hold Bitcoin for less than 155 days, have seen their net position change surge to a yearly high, indicating renewed buying interest. Conversely, long-term holders (LTHs), who control 73.6% of the supply, continue taking profits, with over 363,000 BTC moved from LTH wallets to STHs in the past 30 days, according to a CryptoPotato analysis. Analysts like JA Maartunn describe this as a "mid-bull phase," where LTHs distribute gains while STHs absorb selling pressure. The balance between these groups could determine whether Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000 or retests its June low of $98,200.

Bitcoin Magazine's analysis of on-chain metrics offers a more optimistic outlook. The STH realized price—a proxy for the average cost basis of new buyers—currently sits at $113,000, acting as a critical support level. If Bitcoin holds above this threshold, historical patterns suggest the market could rally to $160,000–$200,000 by late 2025, driven by MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio dynamics, per a Bitcoin Magazine analysis. The MVRV ratio, which compares current prices to realized value, has historically identified overvalued and undervalued conditions. At 0.66, the current level aligns with key support zones seen in prior cycles, suggesting further buying opportunities.

Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has entered "Extreme Fear" territory, a technical indicator that often signals short-term bottoms. Exchange balances, meanwhile, remain near seven-year lows at 2.38 million BTC, suggesting limited immediate selling pressure. Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe argue that a sustained rebound above $112,000 would confirm a return to bullish momentum.

The divergence between STH and LTH behavior underscores a broader market dynamic: while short-term traders are positioning for a potential rebound, long-term holders remain cautious. This tug-of-war reflects Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class, with institutional participation deepening liquidity but also amplifying volatility. For now, traders are watching the $100,000–$104,000 range closely, where past liquidity absorption could provide a foundation for a stronger rally.