Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin STHs' $10B Gains Signal Volatility Risks Amid Bull Run

Bitcoin's short-term holder (STH) whales have accumulated $10.1 billion in unrealized gains, marking the highest level of profitability for this cohort since the start of the current bull cycle. These whales-entities holding more than 1,000 BTC acquired within the last 155 days-now collectively sit on substantial unrealized profits, a development that could influence near-term market volatility. The STH unrealized profit and loss (P&L) metric has surged to a cycle high, reflecting aggressive price gains and the influx of newer investors into the market Bitcoin Whales Sit on $10.1B Gains, Market Volatility Looms^[1].

The shift in Bitcoin's ownership structure has seen a significant transfer of 3.45 million BTC from long-term holders (LTHs) to STHs since the cycle began. This distribution, occurring at prices 100 times higher than in previous cycles, underscores the broader participation of retail and institutional investors. The increased liquidity from this reallocation has amplified market dynamics, with STHs now accounting for a larger share of on-chain activity. Analysts note that while this trend supports Bitcoin's upward trajectory, it also introduces risks of profit-taking, which could trigger short-term corrections Bitcoin Whales Sit on $10.1B Gains, Market Volatility Looms^[1].

Institutional involvement has further shaped the landscape. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed 2.4 times the annual mining supply in 2024, with net inflows surpassing 500,000 BTC. These ETFs, however, account for less than 4% of Bitcoin's total trading volume, indicating that their influence on price remains limited. Meanwhile, large-scale profit-taking by "new whales"-entities amassing BTC in recent months-has spiked to $6–8 billion, a level seen at prior market tops. This activity, coupled with a recent $9.7 billion liquidation by a dormant entity holding 80,000 BTC, highlights the complex interplay between institutional and retail capital Bitcoin Profit-Taking Surges as New Whales Realize …^[2].

Market structure analysis reveals mixed signals. On-chain data shows STHs defending key support levels, such as the $108,000–$109,000 range, suggesting resilience in their positions. However, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric for Bitcoin stands at +21%, indicating a moderate risk of profit-taking. This aligns with historical patterns where STHs begin distributing holdings ahead of potential market tops. Additionally, the average BTC holdings of whale wallets (10–10,000 BTC) have declined to 488 BTC, the lowest since 2018, signaling a potential reduction in dominance by large players Short-Term Holders Are No Longer Accumulating …^[6].

The interplay between STH activity and macroeconomic factors will be critical in the coming months. Federal Reserve policy, particularly the September 2025 meeting, could influence risk appetite and capital flows into Bitcoin. While ETF inflows and institutional buying have bolstered demand, the market's ability to absorb large-scale selling remains untested. If STHs aggressively take profits, it could test the $94,500 realized price threshold-a level where many short-term holders would face losses, potentially triggering further volatility Bitcoin at Risk Between Stagnant Whales and Profit-Taking^[7].

For investors, the current environment presents both opportunities and risks. The high unrealized gains among STHs reflect strong market participation but also signal a potential inflection point. Balancing the likelihood of continued institutional adoption with the risks of profit-taking will be essential. Historical cycles, such as the 2017 bull run, suggest that STH-driven corrections often precede new all-time highs, though regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts could alter this trajectory.