Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Stalls as Market Wonders: Will a Fed Cut Spark a Rally?

Cryptocurrencies remain in a state of consolidation ahead of the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with Bitcoin trading near $111,074 as of Monday. The cryptocurrency has failed to break through key resistance levels amid subdued institutional buying and profit-taking, according to analyst commentary. Despite the weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for August—showing a gain of 22,000 jobs below the expected 75,000—Bitcoin has not experienced a significant price rally, indicating that market expectations may have already priced in a potential rate cut. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 100% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, with a 10% chance of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.

Analysts suggest that even a rate cut may not necessarily lead to a sustained price rally in cryptocurrencies, as a cut could reflect economic weakness rather than strength. Vincent Liu of Kronos Research noted that without stronger ETF inflows or broader liquidity expansion, Bitcoin is unlikely to surpass $120,000 in the near term. This sentiment aligns with recent trends in ETF flows, which have slowed significantly in September compared to the record inflows seen in July and August. The current market cycle appears to be driven largely by institutional capital, and weaker flows may signal a cooling in overall market momentum.

Market structure remains cautiously constructive, according to BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas, who highlighted key support and resistance levels for Bitcoin. The immediate support is at $110,000, while resistance is at $113,400, with further levels at $115,400 and $117,100. Lucas emphasized that breaking through these resistance levels would indicate that the market is ready to retest previous highs. On-chain indicators also show that stablecoin supply is near record levels, which could provide a liquidity cushion for potential rallies. Meanwhile, declining exchange balances for Bitcoin and Ethereum are easing near-term selling pressure.

Off-chain factors, including regulatory developments, will continue to influence market sentiment. Analysts have pointed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) efforts to establish a harmonized regulatory framework for crypto assets as a key development to watch. Additionally, the release of U.S. initial jobless claims data following the Fed’s rate decision could amplify the impact of the policy shift on cryptocurrency prices.

The broader macroeconomic environment also remains a critical factor. U.S. markets are pricing in three 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed’s December meeting, with a 65% probability of a 75-basis-point reduction over the same period. This shift reflects a growing consensus among investors that the Fed is more likely to adopt a dovish stance in response to a weakening labor market. However, inflation remains a concern, with analysts cautioning that a weaker dollar and higher borrowing costs could continue to limit risk appetite.

Source: [1] Bitcoin stalls around $110000; Fed rate cut may not spark ... (https://www.theblock.co/post/369743/bitcoin-rate-cut-may-not-spark-rally) [2] If selling $2 billion crashes the BTC price, why doesn't ... (https://cryptoslate.com/if-selling-2-billion-crashes-the-btc-price-why-doesnt-buying-83b-send-it-to-space/) [3] China's shipments to U.S. plunge 33% in August as overall ... (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/china-exports-growth-in-august-drops-missing-expectations-.html) [4] China's exports rise 4.4% in August, slowest in six months (https://apnews.com/article/china-trade-surplus-deficit-imports-exports-tariffs-ec1b7138131622ff13bbd23775445b69) [5] Markets Bet on More Fed Interest Rate Cuts After Another ... (https://www.morningstar.com/economy/markets-bet-more-fed-interest-rate-cuts-after-another-weak-jobs-report)