Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Stalls as Market Discounts Fed Easing and ETF Flows Cool

The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut has sparked significant market anticipation, yet the cryptocurrency market's response has remained subdued amid expectations of policy easing. Bitcoin’s price has stalled near $110,000, despite weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August, which rose by just 22,000 jobs—far below the forecasted 75,000. The soft labor data has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may ease monetary policy to support economic growth, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 100% probability of a rate cut at the September 17 meeting, though a larger 50-basis-point cut remains a 10% possibility. However, the market has already partially priced in this expected easing, and institutional profit-taking, coupled with flat ETF flows, has limited Bitcoin’s upward momentum [1].

The subdued performance of Bitcoin is not unexpected in the context of broader market dynamics. Analysts suggest that while a rate cut could reflect underlying economic weakness, persistent inflation and cautious risk sentiment continue to dampen appetite for risk assets. Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, notes that without stronger ETF inflows or liquidity expansion, breaking past $120,000 remains a challenge for Bitcoin. This is further underscored by the fact that both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded weaker flows in the first week of September compared to the previous two months, where inflows had reached record levels. Institutional flows, which have been the primary driver of the current market cycle, have thus shown signs of cooling [1].

The volatility of the cryptocurrency market has also been exacerbated by sudden large-scale trades. Recent events highlighted the contrast between sudden, large sell-offs and more gradual, algorithmically executed purchases. A $2 billion sell-off by a large whale can rapidly deplete liquidity and trigger sharp price declines, especially in thinly traded conditions. Conversely, the $83 billion in cumulative buying pressure from Michael Saylor and ETFs in 2025 has been distributed over a longer period and designed to avoid excessive price impact. This distinction underscores the importance of trade execution speed and liquidity structure in determining short-term price movements. Analysts also warned that the presence of "paper" Bitcoin—synthetic or IOU-based representations—might dilute the real impact of reported buying activity [2].

Market observers are closely watching both on-chain and off-chain indicators as potential catalysts for further price movements. On-chain data suggests that stablecoin supply remains near record highs, providing potential liquidity for future rallies, while declining exchange balances for Bitcoin and Ethereum indicate reduced near-term selling pressure. Off-chain factors, including regulatory developments such as the SEC and CFTC’s efforts to establish harmonized frameworks, also play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment. Analysts recommend keeping a close eye on the U.S. initial jobless claims report, which is set to be released the day after the FOMC meeting and could amplify the rate cut’s impact on asset prices [1].

As the U.S. jobs data continues to shape expectations around Federal Reserve policy, the cryptocurrency market remains in a state of cautious anticipation. A weaker-than-expected jobs report can bolster expectations for a more dovish Fed, potentially supporting risk assets like Bitcoin. However, a stronger-than-expected report could delay policy easing, reintroducing uncertainty into asset valuations. With the labor market in a delicate balance—steady unemployment but weak job creation—any deviation from expectations could have far-reaching implications for both traditional and digital markets. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the anticipated Fed rate cut will translate into a meaningful market rally or remain a muted response in the face of structural headwinds [4].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin stalls around $110000; Fed rate cut may not spark ... (https://www.theblock.co/post/369743/bitcoin-rate-cut-may-not-spark-rally)

[2] If selling $2 billion crashes the BTC price, why doesn't ... (https://cryptoslate.com/if-selling-2-billion-crashes-the-btc-price-why-doesnt-buying-83b-send-it-to-space/)

[3] U.S. Jobs Report Sparks Market Volatility as Bitcoin Surges ... (https://www.cointribune.com/en/u-s-jobs-report-sparks-market-volatility-as-bitcoin-surges-and-stocks-slip/)