Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Stalls Near $122K Amid Weak On-Chain Metrics and Cooling ETF Flows

Bitcoin's rally toward the $122,000 level has hit a wall, with growing evidence suggesting that a breakout may take longer than anticipated. Despite bullish positioning and a $2 billion cluster of vulnerable short positions near $121,600, a combination of weak on-chain metrics, seasonal headwinds, and declining institutional flows is dampening optimism [1]. Recent price action has seen Bitcoin consolidating between $117,000 and $119,000, with multiple failed attempts to push past key resistance levels, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers [2].

The technical outlook remains mixed. While the 100-day EMA on the four-hour chart continues to act as a support level, the relative strength index (RSI) has dropped from 74.4 to 51.7, signaling waning buying pressure [1]. Additionally, the inability to break above $123,200—historically a strong resistance zone—raises concerns about a potential double-top pattern, which could trigger a bearish reversal [2]. On-chain data also shows a sharp drop in daily trading volume to $8.6 billion, making it harder for buyers to sustain any significant upward move [1].

Seasonal trends are adding to the challenge. Over 60% of historical August trading periods have ended in the red, with an average return of just 2.56%. Combined with reduced on-chain activity—such as declining active addresses and transfer volumes—this suggests Bitcoin may face downward pressure in the near term [2]. The sharp 80% drop in spot BTC ETF inflows, which fell to $496 million last week, further signals that institutional demand is cooling [1].

Despite these obstacles, external catalysts could shift the momentum. Analysts are closely watching the U.S. White House’s upcoming strategic crypto policy report, which may include a Bitcoin Reserve Framework and delta-neutral accumulation strategies. If these measures are announced, they could stimulate ETF inflows and treasury-building efforts, potentially reigniting bullish sentiment [1]. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC meeting also remains a key event; any dovish commentary—especially hints of a September rate cut—could boost speculative buying and push Bitcoin toward $123,000 [2].

The current market environment reflects a fragile balance between technical and macroeconomic forces. While bulls remain focused on liquidity clusters above $122,000, the convergence of weak on-chain fundamentals and seasonal headwinds points to a prolonged period of consolidation. Investors are advised to monitor ETF redemptions, institutional on-chain activity, and policy developments to determine whether short-term volatility can overcome these structural challenges [2].

Sources:

[1] Bitcoin Eyes $123K But Q3 Data Could Stall Price Discovery (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bulls-aim-to-chase-liquidity-at-dollar122k-but-q3-seasonality-could-stall-breakouts)

[2] BTCUSD - Bitcoin bulls aim to chase liquidity at $122K, but Q3 ... (https://mx.advfn.com/bolsa-de-valores/COIN/BTCUSD/crypto-news/96518507/bitcoin-bulls-aim-to-chase-liquidity-at-122k-but)