Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Stagnates Amid Macro Weakness, Q4 to Decide Bull Cycle Fate

Bitcoin remains in a state of macroeconomic stagnation, with top crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz suggesting that the outcome of the year will largely depend on the final quarter. In his August 5 “Macro Monday” livestream, Olszewicz reviewed Bitcoin’s muted price activity, noting that the current lull is consistent with a historically weak period for the asset during late summer. “We’re in this pocket of seasonal weakness for August and September that we typically see most years,” he explained, referencing seasonality charts that highlight the underperformance of Bitcoin during this window [1]. He added that the coming months could be “a giant nothing burger,” signaling limited movement in the near term.

The question on many investors’ minds, Olszewicz noted, is whether the current bull cycle is nearing its end. “I’m in the ‘probably not over yet, could continue’ camp,” he said, maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance. However, he emphasized that the fourth quarter will play a decisive role. “We will have to see what happens in Q4. Ultimately, that’s going to determine it,” he added. From a technical standpoint, Olszewicz observed that Bitcoin has not yet shown signs of a parabolic top, with key metrics still appearing stable. “Technicals still look fine. Price still looks okay. We had a pullback. All that is fine,” he explained, noting that on-chain and macroeconomic indicators have not yet signaled an overheated market [1].

Despite the longer-term optimism, Olszewicz pointed to several short-term headwinds. After a recent cup-and-handle breakout that briefly pushed Bitcoin toward the $122,000–$123,000 range, momentum has since faded. He doubts that this level will be reached again soon. “In the next two weeks we’ll know if we can start to creep back towards $120,000, which is asking a lot admittedly for August,” he said. The analyst also highlighted the uncertainty around ETF flows, which remain a key variable for Bitcoin’s near-term price. “Do we see ETF flows for any reason? Then do we see treasury companies continuing to buy? Those are the marginal buyers right now,” he noted [1].

Olszewicz further observed a broader decline in speculative demand, as evidenced by the shrinking futures basis across major assets. “Premium is all the way down to under 7% on BTC. It’s under 8% on ETH. And I think SOL is a little more illiquid, but even SOL is way down—15% from 35%,” he said, indicating that the market is entering a more risk-averse phase. On-chain data also reflects this trend, with metrics like unrealized profit versus MVRV showing a decline in risk appetite. “There’s a decline here in risk appetite,” he stated, adding that a parabolic move would require a significant shift in market psychology [1].

For the fourth quarter, Olszewicz outlined several potential catalysts that could reignite Bitcoin’s momentum, including rate cuts, weakening Federal Reserve independence, or a surge in macroeconomic volatility. He advised traders to exercise caution, particularly those using high leverage. “Do I need to put risk back on? Do I need to be as risky as I was earlier?” he asked. “Or does it make more sense to be less risky here?” [1].

From a macroeconomic standpoint, the outlook is mixed. While inflation remains low—currently at 1.65% according to Trueflation—Olszewicz warned that new tariffs could introduce inflationary pressures in the coming months. “We are adding inflationary pressures with tariffs, no doubt about it,” he said, though he noted that the full effects may take time to materialize in the data. Meanwhile, core PCE is trending in the wrong direction, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is projecting 2.1% growth for Q3—modest but not indicative of a recession [1].

Labor market data also casts a cloud over the near-term outlook. “If we account for a non-collapsing labor force participation, we could be as high as 4.9% on the actual unemployment rate,” Olszewicz warned, noting a continued decline in job availability for certain sectors, particularly manufacturing. Liquidity dynamics are also shifting, with the draining of the Fed’s reverse repo facility—once a $2 trillion reservoir of sidelined capital—creating potential for liquidity hiccups and possible intervention by the central bank [1].

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, however, has been a key turning point, according to Olszewicz. “That has really been, in my opinion, a big difference maker,” he said, highlighting the significant impact of ETF approvals and subsequent trading activity on capital flows. “We got ETF approvals here, ETF started trading here, and the rest is history as far as flows are concerned,” he added [1].

In conclusion, Olszewicz emphasized that while risk appetite has waned and price action remains muted, there is no evidence that the Bitcoin bull cycle has peaked. “The cycle’s probably not over,” he said. “It’s just sleeping—and Q4 will ultimately determine whether it wakes up.” At the time of the report, Bitcoin traded at $113,041 [1].

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Source: [1] Bitcoin Stuck In Macro Purgatory—Top Analyst Says Q4 Or Bust (https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-stuck-macro-purgatory-q4-or-bust/)