Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Stabilizes Near $91,440 as Fed Rate-Cut Odds Fuel Market Optimism

Bitcoin faces renewed scrutiny as the Federal Reserve navigates its next move amid persistent inflation and shifting market expectations. Kevin O'Leary, the seasoned investor and Shark Tank star, has emerged as a vocal skeptic of the anticipated December 2025 rate cut, citing inflation at 3% as a key obstacle. He argues that Bitcoin's price will remain relatively stable, hovering within a 5% range of its current level around $91,440, regardless of the Fed's decision.

Market data, however, tells a different story. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 89.2% probability of a rate cut in December, reflecting widespread optimism among investors and traders. This divergence between market sentiment and O'Leary's cautious stance highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy direction. Traders are pricing in dovish signals from recent Fed communications, suggesting they anticipate easing measures despite inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin's recent performance has been mixed. Over the past 30 days, the cryptocurrency has declined by 17.35%, according to CoinMarketCap. Yet, it has shown signs of stabilization in recent weeks, with renewed institutional interest and favorable macroeconomic developments providing support. The Federal Reserve's decision to halt its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program and inject liquidity into the markets has also bolstered short-term financial stability, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets.

Why the Standoff Happened

O'Leary's skepticism stems from his assessment of the broader economic landscape. Inflation remains a key concern, with the U.S. annual inflation rate hitting 3% in September 2025—the highest since early 2025. He attributes this to rising input costs, tariffs, and ongoing supply-chain disruptions. These factors create upward pressure on prices, making rate cuts less feasible, in his view. O'Leary emphasizes that the Federal Reserve must balance its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, which limits its ability to ease monetary policy prematurely.

The market, on the other hand, is pricing in aggressive Fed easing. The CME FedWatch Tool, a widely followed indicator, shows an 89.2% chance of a rate cut in December. This high probability reflects traders' expectations of dovish signals from the Fed, particularly after recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams. The tool's readings have fluctuated significantly, dropping to 33% on November 19 before rebounding to 69.40% by November 21. These swings highlight the sensitivity of market sentiment to official statements and policy signals.

Bitcoin's response to these macroeconomic developments has been muted compared to previous cycles. The cryptocurrency has stabilized around $91,440, despite a 17% monthly decline. This resilience suggests that Bitcoin is maturing beyond short-term monetary policy influences. O'Leary attributes this to growing institutional adoption and broader economic trends, which are now driving the asset's valuation. He argues that even if the Fed cuts rates, Bitcoin is unlikely to see dramatic price movements.

The market reaction has been more pronounced. The end of the Fed's QT program has injected liquidity into the financial system, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets. Bitcoin's recent rebound to $93,000 was partly fueled by this liquidity surge and declining exchange reserves. Institutional players are also showing renewed interest, with Vanguard lifting its crypto ETF ban and Bank of America allowing its advisers to recommend crypto exposure. These developments suggest that Bitcoin's recovery could gain momentum as more traditional investors enter the market.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are closely monitoring the Fed's policy path and its potential impact on Bitcoin. O'Leary's perspective is part of a growing narrative that emphasizes Bitcoin's independence from short-term macroeconomic shifts. He argues that the cryptocurrency is increasingly driven by adoption, utility, and real demand, rather than speculation on Fed decisions. This view is supported by recent developments in Bitcoin's Layer 2 infrastructure, which are aiming to enhance its transaction speed and scalability.

Market participants are also watching the political landscape. Rumors suggest that Kevin Hassett, a prominent economist and potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, could steer the central bank toward a more dovish stance in 2026. If confirmed, Hassett's appointment could accelerate rate cuts and weaken the U.S. dollar, potentially benefiting Bitcoin and other digital assets. However, concerns over central bank independence remain, particularly in a polarized political environment.

As the December Fed meeting approaches, investors are balancing cautious optimism with realistic expectations. O'Leary's outlook, while bearish on rate cuts, underscores Bitcoin's ability to withstand macroeconomic headwinds. Whether the Fed opts for a cut or maintains its current stance, the cryptocurrency appears to be charting a more independent path, driven by long-term fundamentals and institutional adoption. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this trend continues or if macroeconomic factors regain dominance.