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Bitcoin’s current upward movement has been slower compared to past cycles, a trend attributed to structural factors driven by early investors, or "OG whales," as detailed by on-chain analyst Willy Woo. A significant portion of Bitcoin’s supply remains concentrated in the hands of these long-term holders, many of whom accumulated large quantities when the cryptocurrency traded near $10 in 2011. These investors now hold substantial unrealized gains, and their selling activity requires a large influx of new capital—estimated at over $110,000 per BTC—to absorb the selling pressure without driving prices down [1].
This dynamic creates a fundamental resistance to rapid price appreciation, as the market must counterbalance the sell-offs from these whales. Willy Woo describes this as a phase of “growing pains” for
, as the market adjusts to the selling activity of investors who have seen over 10,000x returns [1].Recent on-chain activity reflects this pattern. A notable early whale—who originally received 100,784 BTC in 2018—has been aggressively rotating out of Bitcoin into
. Over the past five days, they deposited 22,769 BTC ($2.59 billion) into Hyperliquid for sale, using the proceeds to purchase 472,920 ETH ($2.22 billion) on spot markets. Simultaneously, they opened a long position of 135,265 ETH ($577 million), signaling a strategic shift in capital and a strong, leveraged bet on Ethereum’s potential [1].In addition to whale activity, Bitcoin’s price movements are influenced by liquidity patterns and trading behavior. On-chain data reveals that weekends typically experience thinner liquidity in both spot and derivatives markets, making the order books more vulnerable to manipulation by large players. CryptoQuant notes that BTC exchange reserves often rise before weekend dips, as sell pressure builds alongside excessive long positioning in derivatives, creating conditions for liquidation cascades. Metrics like SOPR also indicate short-term holders taking profits, further amplifying volatility [1].
These factors combine to form what analysts describe as a “liquidity trap,” where whales exploit weak market conditions to trigger stop-loss clusters and accelerate price movements. The result is a slower, more volatile Bitcoin climb, with structural resistance and strategic capital reallocation shaping the trajectory of the market [1].
Source: [1] Why Is Bitcoin Crawling This Cycle? Analyst Reveals the Hidden Factors (https://cryptopotato.com/why-is-bitcoin-crawling-this-cycle-analyst-reveals-the-hidden-factors/)

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