Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Slides Below Key Trendline as Fed Uncertainty Weighs on Yearly Outlook

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a narrow window to close 2025 in the green. The cryptocurrency must rally 6.24% above its yearly open of roughly $93,374 to end the year higher than it began according to Cointelegraph. Analyst Nic Puckrin highlighted that this would be the first post-halving year to close in the red if Bitcoin fails to make a last-minute push according to Cointelegraph.

The price action has been volatile, with Bitcoin peaking above $125,000 in October only to fall sharply amid a broader market selloff. Since November, the price has dropped by about 30%, forming a local bottom around $80,000. Analysts are now split on whether this indicates the end of the bull market.

With only three trading days left in the year, the market remains in flux. Bitcoin has also fallen below its 365-day moving average, a critical support level, breaking the structural uptrend that began in 2023. This development has raised concerns among traders and investors about potential further downside risk.

Market Outlook and Macro Factors

Bitcoin's performance has increasingly become tied to macroeconomic conditions and liquidity flows. Lower interest rates have historically been positive for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. The U.S. Federal Reserve has already executed three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, but forward guidance from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been mixed, casting doubt on whether more rate cuts are on the horizon.

The uncertainty is evident in market expectations. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, only 18.8% of investors anticipate a rate cut in January 2026 according to Cointelegraph. This hesitancy reflects broader concerns about inflation and the Fed's cautious approach to policy normalization. Investors are now closely monitoring the Fed's next moves for clues about Bitcoin's potential path.

Implications for the Year's Close

The possibility of Bitcoin closing 2025 in the red has sparked significant debate among market participants. If the price fails to rally by 6.24%, it would mark a rare negative outcome for the asset following a major halving event according to Cointelegraph. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced sharp upward trends in the year following a halving, making this potential downturn particularly noteworthy.

The price rally required to avoid a red year is relatively modest, but the market has shown limited appetite for a meaningful rebound. Analysts are divided on whether a recovery will materialize or if the bearish momentum will continue into 2026 according to Cointelegraph. Factors such as Bitcoin's price volatility, global macroeconomic conditions, and investor sentiment will play a decisive role in the outcome.

Broader Crypto Market Impacts

Bitcoin's struggles have had ripple effects across the broader crypto market. Several publicly traded crypto and blockchain companies have also posted mixed results in 2025. For example, Prairie Operating Co (PROP) reported declining earnings in recent quarters, with its stock down 24% in one instance and only 1.74% in another according to Investing.com. Meanwhile, NIP Group Inc (NIPG) reported a $136.3 million net loss due to non-cash impairments, despite a 55.5% year-over-year revenue increase according to Investing.com.

Fold Holdings (FLD) and BitFuFu (FUFU) have also experienced divergent outcomes. Fold reported Q3 2025 revenues of $7.4 million, a 41% increase from the prior year, but is still grappling with operational losses and market pressures according to Investing.com. BitFuFu, by contrast, reported a strong Q3, with revenue doubling year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA reaching $22.1 million according to Investing.com. These mixed results highlight the uneven performance across the crypto ecosystem.

Policy and Political Uncertainty

Political and policy developments are also influencing the market environment. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan recently warned that maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for financial stability. He emphasized that the market would "punish people if we don't have an independent Fed" according to CBS News. The remarks came as Donald Trump has openly criticized current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term is set to expire in May 2026.

The Supreme Court has also weighed in on the topic, ruling that the Fed is a "uniquely structured, quasi-private entity" and that it would be unconstitutional for the president to fire the Fed chair without cause. Moynihan acknowledged Trump's "great candidates" for the Fed chair position but warned against overemphasizing the central bank's role in economic outcomes according to CBS News.

Conclusion and Forward Outlook

As 2025 nears its end, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market face a pivotal moment. The outcome of the final trading days will have lasting implications for investor sentiment and market structure. Whether Bitcoin can rally to close the year in the green will depend on a combination of short-term price action, macroeconomic developments, and regulatory clarity.

For now, all eyes remain on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its next steps. If Bitcoin fails to rally, it could signal the beginning of a prolonged bearish phase. Conversely, a successful rebound would reinforce the asset's resilience and hint at renewed investor confidence in the space.