Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Slides Below 365-Day MA as Onchain Data Flags Bearish Turn

Bitcoin is facing a potential shift in its market cycle as onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports signs of demand exhaustion and the onset of a bear market. Recent data indicates that Bitcoin demand growth has slowed significantly since early October 2025, falling below long-term trends. This comes after several demand-driven rallies since 2023, which had been fueled by the U.S. spot ETF launch, the U.S. presidential election outcome, and increased interest from Bitcoin treasury companies according to Citi's analysis.

CryptoQuant identifies the $70,000 level as a key support zone for Bitcoin in the mid-term. If the price falls below this threshold, it could signal a deeper bearish trend, potentially extending toward $56,000 according to research.

The firm's head of research, Julio Moreno, estimates that Bitcoin could reach the $70,000 level within three to six months.

The market dynamics have shifted with institutional and large-holder demand reversing. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have transitioned from net buyers to net sellers in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a significant change in investor sentiment. This shift is mirrored in onchain data, where addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC are growing below historical trends. Such patterns were observed prior to the 2022 bear market, suggesting a similar trajectory could be unfolding.

Market Indicators and Onchain Metrics

Technical indicators are also painting a bearish picture for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has slipped below its 365-day moving average, a key long-term indicator that historically separates bull and bear market conditions. Derivatives data further supports this bearish sentiment, with perpetual futures funding rates declining to their lowest level since December 2023.

On-chain metrics like the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) are approaching 1, signaling potential capitulation similar to past market reversals. The rising supply in loss, currently at 7 million BTC, underscores growing frustration among holders and could intensify selling pressure if prices decline further according to onchain data.

Analyst Perspectives and Market Outlook

Market analysts are divided on the implications of the current correction. Some view it as a temporary pullback in an ongoing bull run, with a further decline to $60,000-$70,000 potentially signaling deeper capitulation but not necessarily a full market reversal. Others, like pseudonymous analyst Jackis, suggest this is a macro range for 2025 driven by shifts in ownership from long-term holders to institutions rather than fundamental weaknesses according to market analysis.

The 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has historically been a critical support level during bull markets. Its breach in Q4 2025 has raised concerns about the sustainability of the current uptrend. While some analysts argue that the fundamental drivers of Bitcoin's growth remain intact, others emphasize the need to monitor key support levels and onchain data for further confirmation of market direction according to market reports.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite the bearish indicators, downside projections suggest a relatively shallow cycle. Past bear market bottoms have aligned with Bitcoin's realized price, currently near $56,000 according to technical analysis. This would imply a drawdown of roughly 55% from the recent all-time high - potentially the smallest bear market decline on record according to market data. However, the risk of deeper losses remains if the current bearish trend continues.

Regulatory uncertainty and market volatility continue to test investor confidence. The U.S. regulatory landscape is evolving with regulators exploring tailored rules for crypto trading, custody, and taxation. These developments could influence market dynamics and investor behavior in the coming months according to industry analysis.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, the current market conditions present both risks and opportunities. The $70,000 level remains a critical support to watch, as it could determine whether the current correction is a temporary setback or the beginning of a prolonged bear market according to CryptoQuant research. Those with a long-term perspective might view this as a potential buying opportunity, especially if the price stabilizes at historical support levels according to market analysis.

However, the high volatility and uncertainty in the crypto market mean that investors should proceed with caution. Positioning and risk management strategies are crucial, particularly given the potential for further declines. On-chain metrics and technical indicators should be closely monitored to assess the market's direction and timing of potential rebounds.