Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Silent War: Whales Accumulate as Profit Triggers Loom

Bitcoin’s recent price movements have sparked renewed interest in the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs) and their influence on market dynamics, as on-chain data reveals a divergence between profit-taking and accumulation trends. As of the latest market data, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $115,557, down 2.5% over the past 24 hours and approximately 7% below its recent peak above $124,000. This consolidation phase has prompted analysts to scrutinize on-chain indicators to gauge whether the asset is approaching a potential market top or a continuation of its bull cycle. PelinayPA, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, examined LTH behavior using profit and loss bands, revealing that current selling levels remain below historical extremes observed during past bull market peaks. According to this analysis, BTC currently resides within the 150%–350% profit band, suggesting potential room for growth but also increasing the risk of a market top as the asset approaches higher thresholds [1].

Short-term traders, on the other hand, have been more active in profit-taking, with the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio signaling a “mild danger zone” at +21%. This metric, which measures whether Bitcoin is overvalued, indicates that the average investor has been in profit over the past year, increasing the likelihood of selling pressure as the market awaits macroeconomic catalysts [2]. CoinGlass data further highlights this sentiment, noting that approximately $2.2 billion in short positions are at risk of liquidation if Bitcoin recovers to its all-time high. However, despite the short-term volatility, Bitcoin whales—wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC—have been aggressively accumulating, with over 225,000 BTC added since March 2025. This trend is often associated with a bullish reversal and suggests that major holders remain confident in higher price levels [3].

The divergence between LTHs and short-term traders underscores the complexity of Bitcoin’s market structure. While LTHs continue to accumulate and show no signs of panic selling, short-term traders are increasingly focused on managing risk ahead of potential macroeconomic developments. For instance, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut on September 17 has become a focal point for investors, with 83.6% of market participants expecting the cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If realized, this could shift liquidity into risk-on assets like Bitcoin, potentially supporting a breakout from the current consolidation phase [2].

Analysts have also drawn comparisons between the current cycle and previous bull and bear market phases. Historical data from 2017 and 2021 shows that heavy selling by long-term holders often precedes market tops, while the 2022–2023 period was marked by multiple loss realization alerts around the $15,000–$20,000 range [1]. Today, as Bitcoin remains within the 150%–350% profit band, the market is in a delicate balance—neither exhibiting extreme optimism nor deep pessimism. This has led to speculation about potential price ranges in the short to mid-term. If Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, it could trade between $114,000 and $118,000 before attempting a higher breakout. In a stronger bullish scenario, the asset may target $124,000–$178,000 if accumulation continues and demand outpaces selling pressure [1].

Looking ahead, the absence of new bottom alerts suggests that the market is still in the later stages of the current bull cycle, rather than transitioning into a bear market. However, if long-term holder selling intensifies in the coming months—as it did in 2021—Bitcoin could approach a cycle peak above $150,000, followed by a correction. For 2026, the focus will likely shift to whether the market can sustain its bullish momentum or if it will face renewed selling pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty [1].

Source: [1] Analyst Warns: Bitcoin Nearing Profit Zones That Marked (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1052839-20250820) [2] Bitcoin 'Mild Danger Zone' As Profit-Taking Is A Possibility (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-danger-zone-consolidation-profit-takers-analysts) [3] Bitcoin Whales : Do They Influence Trends by Buying ? (https://investx.fr/en/crypto-news/are-whales-buying-bitcoin-at-115000-to-reverse-the-trend/)