Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin shows breakout potential with neutral STH MVRV and negative netflows

Bitcoin’s balanced market indicators, particularly the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV), and consistent negative exchange netflows, suggest that the cryptocurrency is entering a phase of potential breakout amid tightening supply. As of August 5, 2025, the STH MVRV has returned to a neutral level, indicating that short-term holders—those who bought Bitcoin within the last 155 days—are still in profit [1]. This neutrality implies that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, a crucial signal for future price stability and movement [2].

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s exchange netflows have remained negative since February 2024, signaling a shrinking supply of coins available for trading [3]. This outflow pattern suggests that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges rather than depositing it, reinforcing a bullish sentiment based on strong investor confidence [4]. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., this trend reflects a tightening liquidity environment and may precede a significant price move [5].

The continuous outflows are especially notable given Bitcoin’s current price above $100,000, which aligns with the realized cost basis for short-term holders. This level of profitability, combined with the observed accumulation by institutional investors during price dips, indicates growing conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value [6]. The 18,000 BTC outflow in May, for example, points to strategic buying by large participants, even amid market fluctuations [7].

Over the past four years, the STH MVRV has demonstrated Bitcoin’s cyclical tendencies, rising sharply during bull markets and falling during bearish corrections. Today’s balanced position marks a shift toward more mature market behavior, with short-term holders displaying less speculative activity and more long-term orientation [8]. This trend could reduce the overall volatility of Bitcoin and support a more stable price trajectory.

The combination of a neutral STH MVRV and negative netflows suggests that Bitcoin is preparing for a potential breakout as supply constraints tighten. With most short-term holders still in profit and institutional accumulation continuing, the market appears poised for a directional move. Analysts highlight that if Bitcoin remains above the realized price level, it may reinforce short-term investor confidence, further driving upward momentum [9].

[1] Axel Adler Jr.

[2] Coinotag

[3] Coinotag

[4] Coinotag

[5] Coinotag

[6] Coinotag

[7] Coinotag

[8] Coinotag

[9] Coinotag

Source: [1] Axel Adler Jr (https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoins-balanced-market-indicators-suggest-potential-breakout-amid-supply-constraints/)