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Bitcoin’s short-term holders continue to show profit potential, with 70% currently holding gains, according to Glassnode analytics. This figure, despite recent price volatility, underscores a stable market environment. The spent volume from these profitable holders has cooled to 45%, signaling a neutral stance from traders who are neither aggressively buying nor selling [1]. This suggests that while some profit-taking is occurring, there is no strong directional bias among short-term investors at the moment.
The key resistance level for
remains at $116,900. A successful break above this threshold could confirm renewed buying strength and potentially drive the price toward $120,000. Conversely, a failure to push beyond this level could lead to a pullback toward $110,000. The $116,900 level, therefore, acts as a critical psychological and technical benchmark for market participants [1].Meanwhile, ETF outflows have added mild sell-side pressure in recent days. While this has contributed to short-term downward volatility, the outflows have generally been short-lived, preventing prolonged price weakness [1]. Institutional activity has also shown signs of stabilization, with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF recording $91.5 million in fresh inflows on August 5. This marks a reversal after four days of outflows and signals renewed interest from institutional investors [1].
Bitcoin’s current market capitalization stands at approximately $2.31 trillion, with ETFs holding 1.27 million BTC—about 6% of the total circulating supply. This reduction in exchange-based selling pressure is a positive sign for the price action, as it limits the availability of supply in the market. On the technical front, Bitcoin has held above key support levels, including a recent low at $112,000, and is now hovering near the 30-day simple moving average [1].
Market sentiment has also shown a slight shift toward optimism, with the Fear & Greed Index rising to 54. This indicates a growing appetite for risk among investors. However, caution remains warranted. While the RSI approaches overbought territory at 68, the MACD histogram remains slightly negative, pointing to the possibility of consolidation before a decisive move [1].
Long-term holders have also seen action, with on-chain data revealing that they realized over $44 million in profits over the past two days. This suggests that accumulation is ongoing, though profit-taking is also present, particularly among short-term traders [1]. The cost basis for these short-term holders is effectively at $116,900, making this level critical for triggering short-covering and potentially extending the bullish trend.
Analysts are also monitoring the movement of 517 BTC from Bhutan-linked wallets. If these coins are moved to exchanges, they could reintroduce short-term selling pressure [1]. This highlights the importance of tracking large wallet activity to gauge potential supply shocks.
In conclusion, the current market environment for Bitcoin appears to be one of cautious optimism. Short-term holders remain profitable, ETF activity has stabilized, and institutional interest is showing signs of resumption. However, the battle for $116,900 remains pivotal. A breakout could lead to renewed momentum, while a breakdown may trigger a retest of lower support levels. Investors and traders will need to closely monitor both price action and on-chain metrics to navigate the next phase of Bitcoin’s price development [1].
Source: [1] Bitcoin Surges Past $116000 with Fresh Institutional Buying, Coindoo, https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-surges-past-116000-with-fresh-institutional-buying/
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