Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s short-term holders face 13% unrealized profits, down from 232% in 2012, signaling market shift

Bitcoin’s short-term holders are experiencing a stark decline in unrealized profits, with on-chain data showing their gains now sit at just 13%, a sharp drop from historical averages of 232% in 2012 and 150% in 2021 [1]. This group—wallets holding Bitcoin between one and three months—typically reflects broader spot market sentiment. Currently trading near $118,000, Bitcoin remains close to its all-time high, yet short-term holders face significantly reduced margins. Their average realized price is around $104,000, leaving little room to absorb volatility without triggering selling pressure [1].

The compression of unrealized profits suggests a potential shift in market dynamics. While Bitcoin’s price remains near record levels, the shrinking profit cushion for short-term traders increases the risk of capitulation. Historical precedents indicate such shakeouts often precede short-term market bottoms, attracting strategic buyers during temporary dips [1]. However, current conditions do not yet signal mass selling, as traders remain cautiously optimistic about the broader bullish trend.

Institutional analysts, including Matrixport, highlight a potential tactical pause in Bitcoin’s rally. This week’s calendar includes critical events: peak U.S. earnings season, a White House digital assets report, and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. These factors could create headwinds for momentum traders, even as bullish sentiment nears universality [1]. Additionally, historical trends show August and September as historically weak months for Bitcoin, with August averaging near-zero returns and positive outcomes in only three of the past decade [1]. This seasonal pattern may prompt profit-taking or sideways movement in the short term.

Despite these near-term risks, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. A tactical pause, rather than signaling a reversal, could provide consolidation before resuming the upward trajectory. Analysts caution that while the broader end-of-year narrative is positive, immediate volatility is likely as traders navigate macroeconomic and regulatory developments [1].

Source: [1] [title] [https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6887a0b53c1f324d51532fed/].