Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Capitulate as SOPR Falls Below 1.0

Recent on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs)—those who have held their BTC for less than 155 days—are increasingly offloading their positions at a loss, signaling signs of market capitulation. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key on-chain metric used to assess whether holders are selling their coins at a profit or a loss, has dropped below 1.0, suggesting that the STH group is now realizing a net loss on their trades [1]. This trend mirrors patterns seen in June, when a similar decline in SOPR was followed by a sharp price correction [1].

The current SOPR for STHs stands at 0.99, indicating that many of the most recent buyers are selling near their entry price, often under pressure from a bearish market environment [1]. On-chain analytics firm Checkonchain notes that this behavior typically signals capitulation from weaker hands—investors who are less committed to holding through price volatility. Such capitulation events have historically been associated with the formation of market bottoms, as seen in April’s price lows [1].

The recent selling activity is not isolated. On August 1, over 16,417 BTC was moved to exchanges, further supporting the view that short-term holders are preparing for a potential exit [3]. This has added to the broader narrative of increased caution among traders, particularly given the historical volatility seen in August—often referred to in market circles as the “August Curse” [3].

Technical indicators also support the bearish narrative. The Bitcoin RSI recently fell below its 14-week moving average, a development that has historically preceded corrections of 24–26% [2]. If this pattern holds, the price could face downward pressure toward $95,000. However, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode suggests the market is still in a relatively balanced state, with the recent pullback from all-time highs not yet triggering a mass panic sell-off [5].

Despite the growing bearish sentiment, there are some signs of resilience. Bitcoin’s price has seen a modest recovery in recent days, reaching $116,400 [1]. Analysts remain divided on the implications of these developments, with some arguing that the June correction pattern may repeat, while others highlight macroeconomic factors—such as the weaker U.S. dollar and stable yuan—as potential buffers for Bitcoin’s price movement [6].

The coming days will be critical in determining whether the capitulation of short-term holders leads to a deeper correction or if buying interest emerges to stabilize the price. A repeat of June’s price action would likely test the resolve of long-term holders and provide greater clarity on Bitcoin’s trajectory in the near term [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Capitulating—Will June Pattern Repeat? (https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-short-term-holders-capitulating-june-repeat/)

[2] Manuel - Bitcoin's RSI just triggered a crash signal (https://m.facebook.com/manuel.guevarra.369210/photos/bitcoins-rsi-just-triggered-a-crash-signal-95k-could-be-nextarthur-hayes-and-ali/738432465736631/)

[3] The August Curse Strikes Bitcoin: Price Under Pressure ... (https://www.cryptotimes.io/2025/08/06/the-august-curse-strikes-bitcoin-price-under-pressure-near-111k/)

[5] Bitcoin News Today and BTC Predictions (https://cointelegraph.com/tags/bitcoin)

[6] Chinese Exporters Harness Currency Options Amid Yuan ... (https://m.fastbull.com/news-detail/chinese-exporters-harness-currency-options-amid-yuan-stability-4338707_0)