Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Set for 2026 Rebound as Gold Hits $5K, VanEck Says

Bitcoin is poised for a significant rebound in 2026 as gold surges toward $5,000, according to a recent outlook from asset manager VanEck. The prediction suggests that Bitcoin will follow gold's trajectory, driven by growing demand for scarce assets amid ongoing monetary debasement. David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, sees the current underperformance of Bitcoin as a setup for a sharp recovery in the coming year as VanEck's manager stated.

The cryptocurrency has lagged behind both gold and the Nasdaq 100 in 2025, despite expectations of a boost from fiat currency devaluation. Schassler attributes this year's weakness to reduced risk appetite and tight liquidity, but maintains confidence in Bitcoin's long-term appeal. "As debasement ramps, liquidity returns, and BTC historically responds sharply," he noted as VanEck's manager stated.

While the firm's broader 2026 outlook is bullish, VanEck cautions that the path ahead is not without risks. In a separate report, the firm's head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, described the outlook as "mixed but constructive." He emphasized that volatility has decreased, but warned that leverage remains a concern and on-chain activity is still soft. "2026 is more likely a consolidation year. Not a melt-up. Not a collapse," Sigel said according to Bitcoinist.

Why the Bullish Outlook

VanEck's bullish stance is grounded in a combination of monetary debasement, technological transformation, and the rising appeal of hard assets. Schassler argues that governments will increasingly rely on money printing to fund liabilities and political ambitions, pushing investors toward stores of value like gold and Bitcoin. Gold, which has already risen over 70% this year, is expected to extend its run to $5,000 by 2026 as VanEck's manager stated.

The firm also sees a quiet bull market emerging in natural resources, driven by the infrastructure demands of artificial intelligence, energy transitions, and robotics. These "old-world assets" are building the foundation for the new world economy, further supporting the case for scarce assets like Bitcoin as VanEck's manager stated.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite the optimistic forecasts, VanEck acknowledges that 2026 is unlikely to bring a dramatic surge or crash. Sigel pointed to a complex macroeconomic landscape, including AI-driven capital expenditure fears and a tightening credit market. Even if policy rates decline, the broader cost-of-capital environment could still hinder risk-taking, especially for assets that require refinancing. "The market has already absorbed roughly 35% of a potential 40% drawdown," he said according to Bitcoinist.

The firm also warned of the potential impact of quantum security concerns on Bitcoin's future. While not an immediate threat, these issues could draw significant attention and influence long-term development. Sigel compared the potential response to quantum threats with the earlier blocksize debates, which led to a public and technically rich discussion that ultimately strengthened the network according to Bitcoinist.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, VanEck suggests a measured approach to Bitcoin in 2026. The firm recommends a disciplined 1 to 3% allocation, built through dollar-cost averaging. Positioning for market dislocations is key, as the firm expects a range-bound environment rather than a clear trend. Sigel also highlighted opportunities in Bitcoin mining and digital payments, particularly for miners transitioning into energy-backed compute platforms according to Bitcoinist.

The firm's cautious stance is echoed by Coinbase Institutional, which described its outlook as "cautiously optimistic." While regulatory clarity and stablecoin adoption could drive institutional interest, the firm warned that economic growth will remain uneven. Inflation risks and the timing of interest rate cuts will also play a significant role in shaping the market in the coming months according to Coinotag.

Bitcoin's volatility profile is expected to shift as the market matures, according to Coinbase. This evolution may signal a more stable and institutional-friendly environment, supporting long-term growth. The firm also emphasized the importance of stablecoins in expanding payments, with projections that the stablecoin market could reach $1.2 trillion by 2028 according to Coinotag.