Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s September Jinx: Bearish History vs. Potential Bullish Turnaround

September has historically been a volatile period for Bitcoin, with data indicating a pattern of underperformance in the cryptocurrency during the month. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin’s average return in September stands at -3.33%, making it one of the worst months in the asset’s calendar year [2]. Over the past 15 Septembers since Bitcoin's launch, 10 have closed the month in negative territory. The most severe of these was in 2014, when the price dropped by 20%. This historical trend raises concerns for investors as the current September progresses under similar conditions.

The bearish sentiment is supported by recent analyst forecasts. Timothy Peterson, a cryptocurrency analyst, has highlighted a decline of 6.5% in Bitcoin’s value over the past month and predicts a price range of $97,000 to $113,000 by the end of September [2]. This projection aligns with the broader seasonal trend of weaker performance. Additionally, the market has been characterized by some as resembling a “classic stock market top,” indicating vulnerability to further corrections [2].

However, not all perspectives are uniformly bearish. Some analysts argue that September may represent a bottom before a potential recovery in the fourth quarter. Historical data suggests that October and November have been Bitcoin’s strongest months, with average gains of nearly 29% and 38%, respectively, since 2010. Crypto Nova, a well-known cryptocurrency commentator, noted that Bitcoin has historically bottomed out in September following the year of the halving, after which it tends to rally in the final quarter of the year [2]. This pattern could offer hope to investors who believe the current month might serve as a setup for a larger rebound.

On-chain data also provides mixed signals. Analysts such as Rand have highlighted a steady decline in the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges, with the exchange supply dropping to a six-year low. This reduction in liquidity may indicate reduced selling pressure, which could support a more bullish outlook. Cade Bergmann described this shift as a “bullish supply shock,” suggesting that shrinking supply could create a positive imbalance if demand increases [2]. Additionally, momentum metrics appear to be shifting from negative to positive, which analysts interpret as a potential reversal in market sentiment.

Political and macroeconomic factors are also influencing Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has been vocal in his pro-crypto stance, pushing for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts and promoting the adoption of American Bitcoin (ABTC), a Nasdaq-listed accumulation platform [3]. At the same time, institutional buying activity remains robust, with companies such as MicroStrategy and Japanese firm Metaplanet making significant BTC purchases. These developments underscore the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against rising U.S. debt and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Institutional flows and macroeconomic expectations continue to shape Bitcoin's price action. For example, MicroStrategy recently disclosed the purchase of 4,048 BTC, valued at $450 million, while Metaplanet increased its holdings to 20,000 BTC [3]. These inflows suggest confidence in Bitcoin’s role as a store of value in a world of expanding fiscal and monetary stimulus. Additionally, whale activity has been a point of focus, with large movements of Bitcoin triggering market speculation. While sudden whale transactions can cause volatility, gradual repositioning has so far dampened broader market reactions.

Market watchers remain closely monitoring key events, such as the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. Analyst Marty Party has highlighted September 6 as a potential catalyst tied to market maker activity, with the month’s end and the FOMC meeting on September 17 seen as critical junctures [2]. As Bitcoin consolidates near $112,000, the coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether the asset can overcome its historical September weaknesses or if it will continue to struggle under macroeconomic and seasonal pressures.

Source:

[1] Here's What to Expect From Bitcoin This September (https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/09/04/heres-what-to-expect-from-bitcoin-this-september/)

[2] Analyst Reveals Why Bitcoin Will Survive the September ... (https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-september-seasonal-trends-2025/)

[3] Bitcoin Price Forecast Near $112K as BTC-USD Faces Crash ... (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-near-112k-usd-as-market-braces-for-wild-moves)

[4] Bitcoin's Rough August Wiped Out Summer Rally (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoins-rough-august-wiped-summer-120000982.html)

[5] September Slump? New Research Shows Seasonal ... (https://cryptopotato.com/september-slump-new-research-shows-seasonal-market-myths-dont-hold-up/)