Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's September Dilemma: History vs. Macroeconomic Disruption

Bitcoin is entering September 2025 amid a mix of historical patterns and evolving macroeconomic dynamics. Analysts and investors are closely watching whether the cryptocurrency will follow the well-documented seasonal pattern known as the “red September” dip, which has historically marked a decline in BTC price activity. According to historical data, Bitcoin has averaged returns of -3.77% in September since 2013, closing in the red in eight of the past 12 years. This pattern mirrors the broader equity markets, where September has traditionally been a weak month for the S&P 500 as well. The month is often characterized by portfolio rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting by institutional investors, leading to increased selling pressure.

Benjamin Cowen, CEO of ITC Crypto, has highlighted the historical tendency of Bitcoin to revisit its 20-week simple moving average (SMA) during post-halving Septembers before bouncing into a Q4 rally. He cited the patterns observed in 2017 and 2021, when Bitcoin ended the month with dips of 7.30% and 7.72%, respectively. Cowen argues that the current retest of the 20W SMA aligns with the broader cyclical framework and could be a precursor to a strong year-end rally. However, not all analysts agree with this view. Vinicius Bazan, CEO of Underblock, noted that Bitcoin typically gains in August during post-halving years but closed August 2025 with a 6.43% loss, signaling a potential deviation from historical trends. Bazan attributes this to the influence of macroeconomic factors, which he suggests are disrupting the usual rhythm of the cycle.

The current price action reflects growing concern about Bitcoin's ability to maintain support levels as the month progresses. At the beginning of September 2025, Bitcoin was trading near $108,000, approximately 13% below its August all-time high of $124,533. The cryptocurrency has broken through legal support around $107,500 and now faces critical support at $104,000, which coincides with the 200-day moving average (200 MA). Analysts like ZYN have pointed to hidden bullish divergence in Bitcoin's RSI, suggesting that the market may not be as weak as the price chart indicates. ZYN projects that Bitcoin could reach a fresh all-time high above $124,500 within the next 4–6 weeks.

Institutional dynamics are also playing a role in shaping the September narrative. Whale accumulation has reached a record high, with addresses holding 100+ BTC surpassing even the 2017 peak. This accumulation pattern suggests that sophisticated investors are buying the dip despite retail capitulation. However, ETF outflows during August totaled $751 million, indicating institutional caution and uncertainty. The divergence between whale accumulation and ETF selling highlights different time horizons and risk appetites among large holders. Meanwhile, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are creating potential upside catalysts. The 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index has weakened to -0.25, its lowest level in two years, suggesting that Bitcoin could benefit from dollar weakness.

Despite the bearish setup, some analysts remain optimistic. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, has been one of the most bullish and accurate Bitcoin analysts in recent years. He believes that Bitcoin could return to $120,000 in September and end the year around $200,000. The bull case relies on factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, institutional adoption continuing despite ETF outflows, and a technical rebound from oversold conditions. Ash Crypto predicts that the Fed will initiate rate cuts in Q4, which could inject trillions into the crypto market. These macroeconomic tailwinds could help Bitcoin break the “red September” pattern, as was the case in 2023 and 2024.

Bitcoin's entry into September 2025 is being shaped by both historical patterns and evolving market conditions. While the “red September” phenomenon has been a consistent feature of the past decade, the cryptocurrency's trajectory this year could diverge from past cycles due to the influence of macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin will follow its historical tendency to dip before a Q4 rally or break the pattern and set a new all-time high. As the market navigates these dynamics, investors will be closely watching both technical indicators and macroeconomic signals to gauge the cryptocurrency’s potential direction.

Source:

[1] Post-Halving Cycles Point to Strong September Pullback Before Q4 Rally (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/09/03/post-halving-cycles-point-to-strong-september-pullback-before-q4-rally/)

[2] Data Shows Bitcoin Could Dip Lower in September, But ... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1088257-20250902)

[3] Bitcoin bulls charge at $112K as gold hits fresh all-time highs (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bulls-charge-at-112k-gold-hits-fresh-all-time-highs)

[4] How Low Can Bitcoin Go in September 2025? BTC Price ... (https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/how-low-can-bitcoin-go-in-september-2025-btc-price-predictions-analysis/)

[5] Bitcoin Retakes $111K as Risk Assets Reverse Off Worst ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/02/bitcoin-retakes-usd111k-as-risk-assets-reverse-off-worst-levels)

[6] Bitcoin set to beat 'red September' dip for third straight year (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-breaks-red-september-streak-third-year)