Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's September Curse Meets Fed's Rate Cut Gamble

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions and key economic data releases have triggered heightened market volatility, with cryptocurrencies and broader financial markets reacting to the shifting landscape. The central bank’s September 16–17 policy meeting is now a focal point, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. This possibility has become a critical variable for traders and investors, especially in the context of historical crypto seasonal patterns. Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has typically ended September in negative territory, averaging a decline of –3.77%. The first week of September 2025 followed this trend, with Bitcoin dipping to $107,400 before recovering to around $110,386 [2].

Ethereum (ETH) and other major cryptocurrencies also faced downward pressure in early September, with Ethereum shedding more than 7% and XRP falling near 1%. This bearish sentiment is partly attributed to the convergence of traditional and decentralized finance, the evolution of stablecoin usage, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve announced a conference on payments innovation, scheduled for October 21. The event will address topics including artificial intelligence in payments and the tokenization of financial services. The conference aims to bring together diverse stakeholders to discuss advancements in the payments ecosystem, reflecting the Fed’s ongoing focus on financial innovation amid regulatory and technological shifts [1].

The U.S. jobs data, due for release on September 5, is anticipated to influence market sentiment further. Strong employment figures have historically tempered rate-cut expectations, which could pressure cryptocurrencies. For instance, robust labor market data in earlier months pushed Bitcoin back to $97,000 by dampening hopes for aggressive rate reductions. Conversely, weaker readings have historically supported bullish moves in crypto, as seen in prior rate-cut cycles when Bitcoin surged more than 120% [2]. The Federal Reserve’s policy response to inflation data and labor indicators will be closely scrutinized, as it directly affects liquidity and risk appetite in financial markets.

The regulatory landscape for stablecoins and broader crypto markets is also evolving, with the U.S. enacting the GENIUS Act and the European Union enforcing its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) Regulation. Bullish Europe recently secured a MiCA license in Germany, allowing it to offer services across the EU under the supervision of BaFin. This regulatory alignment is seen as a positive development for institutional adoption, with Ethereum staking participation in the EU surging by 39% in 2025, compared to 22% in non-EU regions [5]. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the GENIUS Act provides a framework for stablecoins, potentially reducing risks associated with private issuance and enhancing consumer protections [4].

Gemini and other exchanges are also expanding their offerings in Europe under MiCA and MiFID II regulations, with Gemini launching perpetual contracts denominated in USDC and staking services for Ethereum and Solana. This shift reflects a broader trend toward institutional-grade crypto products, particularly as derivatives markets gain traction. Derivatives trading volumes, for instance, reached $20.2 trillion in the first half of 2025, far outpacing spot trading volumes of $3.6 trillion [6]. These developments indicate growing demand for risk-managed financial instruments, particularly among sophisticated retail and institutional investors.

However, volatility remains a concern. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned of a potential 75% correction in Bitcoin if current macroeconomic conditions persist, citing similarities to the 2022 market environment. On-chain metrics, including rising short liquidations and long-side premiums, also suggest increased market fragility [3]. The outcome of the upcoming U.S. CPI release and the Fed’s policy decision will likely determine whether the market continues to trend upward or faces a significant correction. As investors brace for these developments, the interplay between regulatory advancements, economic data, and policy decisions will remain central to market dynamics.

Source:

[1] Press Releases (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20250903a.htm)

[2] Is Bitcoin doomed to drop in September? Fed policy may ... (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/is-bitcoin-doomed-to-drop-in-september-fed-policy-may-decide-202509050615)

[3] Bitcoin on the Edge: Why One Veteran Trader Sees a 75% ... (https://cryptodnes.bg/en/bitcoin-on-the-edge-why-one-veteran-trader-sees-a-75-plunge/)

[4] Crypto Rules in Europe vs. the US: Does Your Stablecoin ... (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/crypto-rules-europe-vs-us-does-your-stablecoin-strategy-need-change)

[5] MiCA News: Bullish Europe Wins Crypto License in Germany (https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/09/05/crypto-exchange-bullish-s-european-arm-wins-mica-license-in-germany)

[6] Gemini launches derivatives and ETH, SOL staking in Europe (https://cointelegraph.com/news/gemini-crypto-derivatives-europe-launch)