Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Selloff: Structural Shift or Tactical Retreat?

Bitcoin's bearish lean, as evidenced by perpetual futures long/short ratios and ETF outflows, has sparked debate over whether the selloff signals a broader market correction or a temporary rebalancing of institutional positions. Analysts at Bitfinex argue that November's record $3.7 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows-led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) with $2.47 billion in redemptions-reflect tactical adjustments rather than a structural shift in institutional demand. The firm attributes the decline to profit-taking by long-term holders and leveraged positions unwinding amid uncertainty over December interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, perpetual futures data underscores the bearish sentiment. Long/short ratios for Bitcoin futures have skewed sharply in favor of short positions, with open interest rising to 70,000 contracts by mid-November. This trend aligns with broader market dynamics: Bitcoin's price has plummeted nearly 30% from its October peak of $126,000 to below $84,000, hitting multi-year lows in key technical indicators like the relative strength index (RSI), which has fallen to its lowest level in two years.

The selloff has not been uniform across the crypto ecosystem. Altcoins have defied expectations, with the ALT/BTC ratio surging nearly 9.5% in November-a sign of altcoin seller exhaustion. Binance's trading data shows altcoins now account for 60% of volume, the highest since early 2025. This divergence suggests a potential realignment of risk appetite, with investors rotating into smaller-cap assets as Bitcoin's dominance wanes to 58.83%.

Institutional demand, however, remains a critical wildcard. While ETF outflows have dominated headlines, recent inflows totaling $238 million in late November-driven by BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC-hint at a possible stabilization. Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth funds, which tripled their IBIT holdings in Q3 2025, have continued to add to their positions, signaling confidence in Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals. Analysts note that 95% of ETF assets are now held by investors aged 55 and older, a demographic less prone to panic selling.

Macro factors further complicate the outlook. The Federal Reserve's 4.06% 10-year Treasury yield-a key benchmark for risk assets-has constrained speculative flows, though expectations of a December rate cut could reverse this trend. VanEck's ChainCheck report highlights that mid-cycle holders, not long-term whales, are driving the selloff, with smaller whales accumulating over 1-2 years while larger whales remain net sellers. This dynamic has pushed the fear/greed index to its lowest level since March 2025, amplifying bearish sentiment.

The market's liquidity structure also reveals fragility. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative for 21 consecutive days, the longest streak in the current cycle, reflecting sustained selling pressure on U.S. exchanges. Open interest and leverage ratios suggest short positions are tightening their grip, with rising liquidations-over $911 million in November-further pressuring prices.

Despite the gloom, some analysts see a potential inflection point. Bitcoin's recent consolidation above $84,000 and the oversold RSI reading could set the stage for a rebound if ETF inflows persist. Abu Dhabi's continued accumulation and the Fed's dovish pivot may provide the catalyst needed to restore bullish momentum. For now, however, the bearish lean remains intact, with institutions and retail investors alike navigating a market at a critical juncture.